Kieran Trippier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kieran Trippier's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 91.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €877k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1592 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1605
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €602k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 43% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -39% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1592 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 21 | 1592 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1605 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 25 | 1309 | 38% | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 1556 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 28 | 2240 | 65% | 1 | 10 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 1586 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 38 | 3348 | 98% | 1 | 7 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1559 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RM | 15 | 979 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1536 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 6 | 430 | 13% | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1503 | 1545 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RB | 28 | 2477 | 72% | 0 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 1558 | 1728 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RB | 25 | 1980 | 58% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 1523 | 1759 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 27 | 2278 | 67% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1526 | 1732 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 24 | 1914 | 56% | 0 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1567 | 1769 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 12 | 566 | 17% | 0 | 5 | 0.80 | 0.30 | 1515 | 1723 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RB | 6 | 458 | 13% | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 1499 | 1635 | 1.08 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 9 | 669 | 0 | 3 | 1641 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 222 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 6 | 513 | 0 | 1 | 1679 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 220 | 0 | 0 | 1795 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 609 | 0 | 0 | 1684 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 541 | 0 | 1 | 1692 |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1797 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 626 | 0 | 2 | 1802 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 270 | 0 | 3 | 1742 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1579 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Evans Premier League · 2024 | 36 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Phil Neville Premier League · 2013 | 36 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Jamie Carragher Premier League · 2013 | 35 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| William Gallas Premier League · 2013 | 36 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Angelo Ogbonna Premier League · 2023 | 35 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Ashley Young Premier League · 2023 | 38 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Iván Ramis Laliga · 2019 | 35 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Juanfran Torres Laliga · 2019 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Newcastle | Wolves | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 7 Jan 2022 | Atlético | Newcastle | €14.0M | €18.0M |
| 17 Jul 2019 | Tottenham | Atlético | €22.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Burnley | Tottenham | €4.9M | €6.0M |
| 4 Jan 2012 | Man City Res. | Burnley | Unknown | €250k |
| 3 Jan 2012 | Burnley | Man City Res. | Free / loan | €250k |
| 26 Jul 2011 | Man City Res. | Burnley | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 May 2011 | Barnsley | Man City Res. | Free / loan | €250k |
| 7 Aug 2010 | Man City Res. | Barnsley | Free / loan | €50k |
| 7 Mar 2010 | Barnsley | Man City Res. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 9 Feb 2010 | Man City Res. | Barnsley | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Man City U18 | Man City Res. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.