Youssef El Arabi

39 yrs · Striker · Morocco
FC Nantes · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€100k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€30k – €253k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€218k – €791k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€80k – €100k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€35k – €760k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€30k – €253k
Model value (performance-implied)€218k – €791k
Projected value (24 months)€80k – €100k
Dashed line: current market value (€100k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Youssef El Arabi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (938 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage48.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable39.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €107k vs market €100k
Expected appreciationNeutral+9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
938 (31% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.38
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.56
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
49 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1304
Opponent strength
1468
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€80k – €100k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -16% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 39: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 938 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC NantesLigue 1ST2593831%310.380.56146813040.88
2023/24Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1ST71938%311.870.45115614900.42
2022/23Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1ST2580134%451.010.62122714460.37
2021/22Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1ST24139259%1030.840.46124414990.39
2020/21Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1ST23164170%1921.150.58125415310.39
2019/20Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1ST25184479%1761.120.54129015910.46
2015/16Granada CFLaligaST35252074%1520.610.68155914571.17
2014/15Granada CFLaligaST28199358%820.450.60156614421.18
2013/14Granada CFLaligaST36279182%1220.450.59154314401.19
2012/13Granada CFLaligaST31199158%810.410.51150714601.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4150001409
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios232101317
2022/23Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios627220—
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4260101409
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4158101550
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios128001426
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios8406301497
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios2162101371
2021/22Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios415420—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios3147101446
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios5427001617
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4332301631
2020/21Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios521821—
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios2121101440
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4373201668
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6277301673
2019/20Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios422800—
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios384201536
2015/16Copa Del ReyGranada CF317710—
2012/13Copa Del ReyGranada CF16700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sergio Floccari
Serie A · 2019
38€300k€100kfell
Grégory Pujol
Ligue 1 · 2016
36€250k€250kflat
Sergio Pellissier
Serie A · 2017
38€200k€200kflat
Sergey Kornilenko
Premier Liga · 2019
36€100k€100kflat
Vladimir Korytko
Premier Liga · 2015
36€50k€50kflat
Jérémy Blayac
Ligue 1 · 2018
35€250k€250kflat
Pires
Liga Portugal · 2018
37€100k€50kfell
Momo
Laliga · 2018
36€100k€100kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
18 Jul 2025APOEL NicosiaFC NantesFree / loan€150k
13 Jul 2024OlympiacosAPOEL NicosiaFree / loan€300k
6 Jul 2019Al-Duhail SCOlympiacosFree / loan€5.0M
18 Jul 2016Granada CFLekhwiya SCUnknown€7.5M
18 Jul 2012Al-HilalGranada CF€5.0M€6.5M
13 Jul 2011SM CaenAl-Hilal€7.5M€6.5M
1 Jul 2009SM Caen BSM CaenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007MondevilleSM Caen BFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Youssef El Arabi · MoneyballAI