Jalen Blesa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jalen Blesa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.29x the positional average in the league (1078 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.1M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1078 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.66
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR +15% to +117%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1078 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | ST | 13 | 1078 | 35% | 7 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.66 | 1316 | 1254 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cesena FC | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stipe Perica Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 25 | €1.4M | €1.7M | rose |
| Aziz Yakubu Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Darko Bodul Superliga · 2013 | 24 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Moussa Marega Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €3.0M | €19.0M | rose |
| Jonathan Urretaviscaya Liga Portugal · 2015 | 25 | €1.7M | €2.8M | rose |
| David Pollet Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Tomi Juric Eredivisie · 2016 | 25 | €750k | €2.5M | rose |
| Evans Kangwa Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Cesena | Rio Ave | €1.7M | €750k |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Univ. Craiova | Cesena | Free / loan | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Dinamo Batumi | Univ. Craiova | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Univ. Craiova | Dinamo Batumi | Free / loan | €200k |
| 13 Feb 2024 | FC Prishtina | Univ. Craiova | €165k | €250k |
| 10 Jan 2023 | KF Rahoveci | FC Prishtina | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Jul 2022 | KF Istogu | KF Rahoveci | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jan 2022 | Arlesey Town | KF Istogu | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Sept 2020 | CD Masnou | Arlesey Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.