
Mateus Pivô
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateus Pivô's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €111k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1149 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €196k – €389k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -27% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1149 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | RB | 14 | 1149 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1321 | 1182 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Júnior Pius Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Maksym Kovalyov Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Leroy Labylle Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €300k | €350k | flat |
| Jaílson Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €325k | €300k | flat |
| Petar Golubovic Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Kalindi Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Rizvan Ablitarov Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Andriy Semenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €300k | €50k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Avs FS | Brusque | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Brusque | Avs FS | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Sampaio-MA | Brusque | Unknown | €50k |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Brusque | Sampaio-MA | Free / loan | €50k |
| 18 Apr 2024 | Sampaio-MA | Brusque | Free / loan | €50k |
| 16 Apr 2024 | Vila Nova FC | Sampaio-MA | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Sampaio-MA | Vila Nova FC | Free / loan | €50k |
| 17 Mar 2023 | EC São José | Sampaio-MA | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Dec 2022 | Passo Fundo | EC São José | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Ferroviário | Passo Fundo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Passo Fundo | Ferroviário | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Apr 2022 | Democrata GV | Passo Fundo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vitória-ES | Democrata GV | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Azuriz | Vitória-ES | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Operário VG | Azuriz | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Marília-SP | Operário VG | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2019 | Anápolis | Marília-SP | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Carapebus-RJ | Anápolis | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2018 | Cianorte | Carapebus-RJ | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Grêmio U20 | Cianorte | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Carapebus-RJ | Grêmio U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.