Mateus Pivô

28 yrs · Right-back · Brazil
Avs Futebol · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€300k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€83k – €271k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€250k – €476k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€196k – €389k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€21k – €393k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€83k – €271k
Model value (performance-implied)€250k – €476k
Projected value (24 months)€196k – €389k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mateus Pivô's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 96

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average3.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €111k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationNeutral-6% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €300k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1149 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1182
Opponent strength
1321
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€196k – €389k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -27% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1149 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Avs FutebolLiga PortugalRB14114938%000.000.09132111820.58

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Júnior Pius
Liga Portugal · 2024
29€300k€300kflat
Maksym Kovalyov
Premier Liga · 2017
28€300k€250kflat
Leroy Labylle
Eredivisie · 2018
27€300k€350kflat
Jaílson
Liga Portugal · 2020
29€325k€300kflat
Petar Golubovic
Premier Liga · 2023
29€400k€350kflat
Kalindi
Liga Portugal · 2021
28€400k€200kfell
Rizvan Ablitarov
Premier Liga · 2017
28€400k€400kflat
Andriy Semenko
Premier Liga · 2021
28€300k€50kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Avs FSBrusqueFree / loanData unavailable
2 Feb 2026BrusqueAvs FSFree / loanData unavailable
15 Aug 2024Sampaio-MABrusqueUnknown€50k
12 Aug 2024BrusqueSampaio-MAFree / loan€50k
18 Apr 2024Sampaio-MABrusqueFree / loan€50k
16 Apr 2024Vila Nova FCSampaio-MAFree / loan€50k
1 Jan 2024Sampaio-MAVila Nova FCFree / loan€50k
17 Mar 2023EC São JoséSampaio-MAFree / loanData unavailable
1 Dec 2022Passo FundoEC São JoséFree / loanData unavailable
30 Aug 2022FerroviárioPasso FundoFree / loanData unavailable
14 Jul 2022Passo FundoFerroviárioFree / loanData unavailable
8 Apr 2022Democrata GVPasso FundoFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2021Vitória-ESDemocrata GVFree / loanData unavailable
1 Feb 2021AzurizVitória-ESFree / loanData unavailable
1 Sept 2020Operário VGAzurizFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2020Marília-SPOperário VGFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jun 2019AnápolisMarília-SPFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2019Carapebus-RJAnápolisUnknownData unavailable
1 May 2018CianorteCarapebus-RJFree / loanData unavailable
1 Feb 2018Grêmio U20CianorteFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Carapebus-RJGrêmio U20Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Mateus Pivô · MoneyballAI