Karl Darlow
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Karl Darlow's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 82.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €178k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1587
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €92k – €199k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -71% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | GK | 22 | 1980 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1587 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2021/22 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 8 | 720 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1542 | 1545 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 25 | 2250 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1560 | 1500 | 1.19 |
| 2017/18 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 10 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1530 | 1493 | 1.15 |
| 2015/16 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 9 | 810 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1517 | 1435 | 1.08 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Santamaría Laliga · 2019 | 34 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Rubén Martínez Laliga · 2020 | 36 | €550k | €200k | fell |
| Roberto Fernández Laliga · 2015 | 36 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Javi Varas Laliga · 2017 | 35 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Manolo Reina Laliga · 2022 | 37 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Toño Laliga · 2015 | 36 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Alberto García Laliga · 2019 | 34 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Alexander Manninger Bundesliga · 2013 | 36 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2023 | Newcastle | Leeds | €400k | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Hull City | Newcastle | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Newcastle | Hull City | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 May 2015 | Nott'm Forest | Newcastle | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 10 Aug 2014 | Newcastle | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Aug 2014 | Nott'm Forest | Newcastle | €5.0M | €1.0M |
| 10 Jan 2013 | Walsall | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Nott'm Forest | Walsall | Free / loan | €50k |
| 26 Oct 2012 | Walsall | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €50k |
| 21 Sept 2012 | Nott'm Forest | Walsall | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 May 2012 | Newport County | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Mar 2012 | Nott'm Forest | Newport County | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Nottingham U21 | Nott'm Forest | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Nottingham U18 | Nottingham U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.