Nícolas

38 yrs · Goalkeeper · Brazil
Pisa Sporting Club · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€100k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€29k – €216k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€40k – €270k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€68k – €101k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€176k – €241k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€29k – €216k
Model value (performance-implied)€40k – €270k
Projected value (24 months)€68k – €101k
Dashed line: current market value (€100k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nícolas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average30.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable38.2 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €105k vs market €100k
Expected appreciationNeutral+1% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
540 (16% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.01
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
30 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1260
Opponent strength
1564
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€68k – €101k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -38% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 540 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 38: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Pisa Sporting ClubSerie AGK654016%000.000.01156412600.93
2020/21Udinese CalcioSerie AGK21805%000.000.00139113870.90
2017/18Hellas VeronaSerie AGK36324095%000.000.00148312210.86
2013/14Hellas VeronaSerie AGK1903%000.000.01166114310.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2019/20Italy CupUdinese Calcio218000—
2018/19Italy CupUdinese Calcio112000—
2017/18Italy CupHellas Verona19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rafael
Serie A · 2020
38€200k€200kflat
Ricardo
Liga Portugal · 2014
38€200k€200kflat
Nicola Ravaglia
Serie A · 2023
35€100k€100kflat
Angelo da Costa
Serie A · 2021
38€200k€200kflat
Nicola Pavarini
Serie A · 2013
39€100k€100kflat
Vítor Murta
Liga Portugal · 2013
34€200k€100kfell
Hakan Arikan
Super Lig · 2018
36€100k€50kfell
Gianluca Pegolo
Serie A · 2020
39€150k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021RegginaPisaFree / loan€350k
14 Jan 2021UdineseRegginaUnknown€350k
18 Jul 2019Hellas VeronaUdineseUnknown€700k
30 Jun 2019UdineseHellas VeronaFree / loan€700k
31 Jul 2018Hellas VeronaUdineseFree / loan€900k
30 Jun 2016TrapaniHellas VeronaFree / loan€400k
15 Jul 2015Hellas VeronaTrapaniFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2015Virtus LancianoHellas VeronaFree / loan€300k
14 Aug 2014Hellas VeronaVirtus LancianoFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2010AA AnapolinaHellas VeronaFree / loan€50k
1 Jan 2010Atlético-MGAA AnapolinaUnknown€50k
1 Dec 2009TombenseAtlético-MGFree / loan€50k
1 Aug 2009Atlético-MGTombenseFree / loan€50k
1 May 2009Villa NovaAtlético-MGFree / loan€50k
1 Feb 2009Atlético-MGVilla NovaFree / loan€50k
1 Sept 2008CRBAtlético-MGFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2008Atlético-MGCRBFree / loanData unavailable
1 Nov 2006Atlético-MG BAtlético-MGUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.