
Nícolas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nícolas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 30.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 38.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €105k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 540 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1564
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €68k – €101k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -38% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 540 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 38: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1564 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2020/21 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1391 | 1387 | 0.90 |
| 2017/18 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1483 | 1221 | 0.86 |
| 2013/14 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1661 | 1431 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Serie A · 2020 | 38 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Ricardo Liga Portugal · 2014 | 38 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Nicola Ravaglia Serie A · 2023 | 35 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Angelo da Costa Serie A · 2021 | 38 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Nicola Pavarini Serie A · 2013 | 39 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Vítor Murta Liga Portugal · 2013 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Hakan Arikan Super Lig · 2018 | 36 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Gianluca Pegolo Serie A · 2020 | 39 | €150k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Reggina | Pisa | Free / loan | €350k |
| 14 Jan 2021 | Udinese | Reggina | Unknown | €350k |
| 18 Jul 2019 | Hellas Verona | Udinese | Unknown | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Udinese | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jul 2018 | Hellas Verona | Udinese | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Trapani | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €400k |
| 15 Jul 2015 | Hellas Verona | Trapani | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Virtus Lanciano | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €300k |
| 14 Aug 2014 | Hellas Verona | Virtus Lanciano | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | AA Anapolina | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Atlético-MG | AA Anapolina | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Dec 2009 | Tombense | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2009 | Atlético-MG | Tombense | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 May 2009 | Villa Nova | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2009 | Atlético-MG | Villa Nova | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Sept 2008 | CRB | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2008 | Atlético-MG | CRB | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2006 | Atlético-MG B | Atlético-MG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.