Pylyp Budkivskyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pylyp Budkivskyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (2358 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 42.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €153k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2358 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1192
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €49k – €285k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -61% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 2358 | 87% | 12 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 1173 | 1192 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 2097 | 78% | 8 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 1209 | 1182 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | ST | 18 | 1290 | 48% | 4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 1251 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2020/21 | Desna Chernigiv | Premier Liga | ST | 16 | 1133 | 48% | 7 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 1314 | 1331 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 11 | 495 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 1353 | 1463 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Desna Chernigiv | Premier Liga | ST | 4 | 86 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1437 | 1380 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 4 | 306 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.47 | 1416 | 1429 | 0.57 |
| 2017/18 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 12 | 519 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.51 | 1400 | 1362 | 0.63 |
| 2017/18 | Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022) | Premier Liga | ST | 7 | 382 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1431 | 1262 | 0.75 |
| 2016/17 | Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022) | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 1736 | 64% | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 1426 | 1289 | 0.70 |
| 2015/16 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 23 | 1919 | 82% | 13 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 1303 | 1455 | 0.54 |
| 2014/15 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 25 | 2085 | 89% | 8 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 1376 | 1405 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | FK Sevastopol (- 2014) | Premier Liga | ST | 9 | 524 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 1429 | 1317 | 0.63 |
| 2013/14 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 6 | 110 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 1321 | 1395 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 78 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 2 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1353 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | Desna Chernigiv | 2 | 173 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Desna Chernigiv | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 4 | 351 | 0 | 1 | 1455 |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | Desna Chernigiv | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Russian Cup | Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022) | 2 | 180 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 7 | 524 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 4 | 282 | 0 | 1 | 1420 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 5 | 375 | 1 | 0 | 1408 |
| 2014/15 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Sevastopol (- 2014) | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruslan Stepanyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Daniel Candeias Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Leandro Kappel Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Steven Fletcher Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Jerónimo Barrales Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Hugo Rodallega Super Lig · 2021 | 36 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Scott McDonald Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 33 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Vangelis Mantzios Super League 1 · 2016 | 33 | €500k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2024 | Polissya | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €500k |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Desna | Polissya | Free / loan | €700k |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Zorya Lugansk | Desna | Free / loan | €700k |
| 18 Jan 2019 | Shakhtar D. | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | FC Sochaux | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Shakhtar D. | FC Sochaux | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Anzhi | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Shakhtar D. | Anzhi | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Dec 2017 | KV Kortrijk | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Shakhtar D. | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Anzhi | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Shakhtar D. | Anzhi | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Zorya Lugansk | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Shakhtar D. | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Dec 2013 | FC Sevastopol | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €500k |
| 13 Jun 2013 | Shakhtar D. | FC Sevastopol | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Illichivets | Shakhtar D. | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Shakhtar II | Illichivets | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Illichivets | Shakhtar II | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Shakhtar II | Illichivets | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.