Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Luke Shaw remove | Bernardo remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 31 |
| Position | Left-back | Left-back |
| Club · league | Manchester United · Premier League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga |
| League strength | 1.30 | 0.94 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1715 | 1508 |
| League minutes | 3233 (95%) | 2319 (76%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 96 | 78 |
| Market value | €8.0M | €4.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €2.3M – €6.3M | €1.0M – €3.1M |
| Model value | €10.0M – €29.3M | €1.6M – €6.3M |
| Projected value (24m) | €2.3M – €4.4M | €967k – €2.5M |
| Bargain Index | 18/100 | 20/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Moderate | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €6.3M Model value (performance-implied)€10.0M – €29.3M Projected value (24 months)€2.3M – €4.4M Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €3.1M Model value (performance-implied)€1.6M – €6.3M Projected value (24 months)€967k – €2.5M Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Luke Shaw and Bernardo
- Shaw plays in a stronger league (1.30 vs 0.94); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- Shaw was used far more by the club (95% of minutes vs 76%).
- Bernardo is estimated to cost far less (€1.4M vs €3.1M mid-estimate).