Luke Shaw

31 yrs · Left-back (also CB) · England
Manchester United · Premier League · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
18/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.3M – €6.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€10.0M – €29.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.3M – €4.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€3.7M – €27.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €6.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€10.0M – €29.3M
Projected value (24 months)€2.3M – €4.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Luke Shaw's performance-implied value at EUR 10.0M-29.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-4.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 18

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite96.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €3.1M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-63% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €42.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3233 (95% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
96 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1715
Opponent strength
1594
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.3M – €4.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -66% to -31%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB38323395%110.060.08159417151.30
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB734810%000.000.05155816031.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB1296328%000.000.07160015941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB31255675%120.110.11156016991.23
2021/22Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB20160447%030.170.13155516091.17
2020/21Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB32265578%150.200.13156617411.19
2019/20Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB24173551%000.000.04161517201.14
2018/19Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB29259276%140.170.11154516691.22
2017/18Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB1178823%000.000.04145317471.15
2016/17Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB1169120%020.260.12148716941.07
2015/16Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB545013%010.200.09149216191.08
2014/15Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLB16112733%000.000.04157816701.06
2013/14Southampton FCPremier LeagueLB35299287%020.060.09154115491.12
2012/13Southampton FCPremier LeagueLB25195157%000.000.04150614721.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United5238001593
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United2135011647
2023/24Fa CupManchester United18200—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United9502021628
2022/23Fa CupManchester United439001—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United5397021626
2021/22Fa CupManchester United221000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United6406001618
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United4331011660
2020/21Fa CupManchester United314600—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United4360011554
2019/20Fa CupManchester United329012—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United8720001723
2018/19Fa CupManchester United327001—
2017/18Fa CupManchester United431500—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United190001594
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United4390001559
2016/17Fa CupManchester United19000—
2016/17Community ShieldManchester United169001659
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingManchester United2180001545
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United124001569
2014/15Fa CupManchester United418400—
2013/14Fa CupSouthampton FC327000—
2012/13Fa CupSouthampton FC19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
John Terry
Premier League · 2014
34€7.5M€3.0Mfell
Filipe Luís
Laliga · 2016
31€15.0M€8.0Mfell
Bacary Sagna
Premier League · 2016
33€7.0M€800kfell
David Luiz
Premier League · 2019
32€20.0M€4.0Mfell
Federico Fazio
Serie A · 2017
30€9.0M€6.0Mfell
Nacho Fernández
Laliga · 2021
31€10.0M€6.0Mfell
Emerson
Premier League · 2024
30€12.0M€9.0Mfell
Nacho Monreal
Premier League · 2015
29€12.0M€13.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2014SouthamptonMan Utd€37.5M€13.0M
1 Nov 2012Southampton U18SouthamptonUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.