Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Jack Grealish remove | Gonçalo Guedes remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Position | Left winger | Left winger |
| Club · league | Everton FC · Premier League | Real Sociedad · Laliga |
| League strength | 1.30 | 0.95 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1556 | 1462 |
| League minutes | 1632 (48%) | 1832 (54%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 92 | 85 |
| Market value | €20.0M | €6.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €5.4M – €16.0M | €2.0M – €5.9M |
| Model value | €13.9M – €27.2M | €7.3M – €17.8M |
| Projected value (24m) | €3.4M – €10.1M | €2.0M – €4.5M |
| Bargain Index | 5/100 | 23/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Moderate | Low |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€5.4M – €16.0M Model value (performance-implied)€13.9M – €27.2M Projected value (24 months)€3.4M – €10.1M Dashed line: current market value (€20.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€2.0M – €5.9M Model value (performance-implied)€7.3M – €17.8M Projected value (24 months)€2.0M – €4.5M Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Jack Grealish and Gonçalo Guedes
- Grealish plays in a stronger league (1.30 vs 0.95); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- Guedes is estimated to cost far less (€3.8M vs €7.2M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Guedes (Bargain Index 23 vs 5) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Grealish Moderate, Guedes Low.