Gonçalo Guedes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gonçalo Guedes's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-17.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-4.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.41x the positional average in the league (1832 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1832 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €4.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts; changed club; league level down (-99 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -71% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 32 | 1832 | 54% | 8 | 4 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 1497 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LW | 29 | 987 | 29% | 2 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.59 | 1565 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LW | 17 | 951 | 28% | 3 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 1528 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LW | 9 | 116 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1339 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LW | 13 | 709 | 21% | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 1600 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LW | 12 | 405 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1344 | 1718 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | SS | 35 | 2601 | 76% | 11 | 6 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 1534 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LW | 31 | 2296 | 67% | 5 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 1560 | 1501 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LW | 21 | 1268 | 37% | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 1513 | 1548 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LW | 25 | 1468 | 43% | 5 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 1543 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LW | 33 | 2437 | 71% | 5 | 11 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 1529 | 1607 | 1.11 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LW | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1335 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | SS | 16 | 1198 | 39% | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 1345 | 1653 | 0.58 |
| 2016/17 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LW | 7 | 139 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.23 | 1339 | 1757 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RW | 18 | 917 | 30% | 3 | 6 | 0.88 | 0.36 | 1384 | 1712 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LW | 5 | 37 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1318 | 1714 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 7 | 497 | 1 | 4 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 142 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1589 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1635 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 63 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1561 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 6 | 402 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 206 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 3 | 199 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 8 | 506 | 3 | 1 | 1591 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 4 | 317 | 0 | 0 | 1719 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 282 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 422 | 2 | 1 | 1609 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 7 | 496 | 1 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2015/16 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Pavoletti Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Alfred Finnbogason Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €10.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Choco Lozano Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Juanito Gómez Serie A · 2015 | 30 | €2.6M | €700k | fell |
| Admir Mehmedi Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Vedat Muriqi Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Andrea Petagna Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Roger Martí Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | Wolves | Real Sociedad | €4.0M | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Villarreal | Wolves | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Wolves | Villarreal | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 18 Jan 2024 | Benfica | Wolves | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 29 Aug 2023 | Wolves | Benfica | Free / loan | €23.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Benfica | Wolves | Free / loan | €23.0M |
| 19 Jan 2023 | Wolves | Benfica | Free / loan | €32.0M |
| 8 Aug 2022 | Valencia | Wolves | €32.6M | €40.0M |
| 27 Aug 2018 | PSG | Valencia | €40.0M | €40.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Valencia | PSG | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 1 Sept 2017 | PSG | Valencia | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 25 Jan 2017 | Benfica | PSG | €30.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.