Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Douglas Santos remove | Lucas Olaza remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 31 |
| Position | Left-back | Left-back |
| Club · league | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg · Premier Liga | FK Krasnodar · Premier Liga |
| League strength | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1597 | 1536 |
| League minutes | 1922 (71%) | 2368 (88%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 81 | 76 |
| Market value | €7.5M | €3.5M |
| Estimated acquisition | €2.1M – €5.5M | €926k – €2.6M |
| Model value | €2.9M – €5.3M | €2.4M – €7.5M |
| Projected value (24m) | €1.5M – €3.5M | €980k – €2.1M |
| Bargain Index | 10/100 | 25/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Very High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €5.5M Model value (performance-implied)€2.9M – €5.3M Projected value (24 months)€1.5M – €3.5M Dashed line: current market value (€7.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€926k – €2.6M Model value (performance-implied)€2.4M – €7.5M Projected value (24 months)€980k – €2.1M Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Douglas Santos and Lucas Olaza
- Olaza was used far more by the club (88% of minutes vs 71%).
- Olaza is estimated to cost far less (€1.2M vs €2.8M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Olaza (Bargain Index 25 vs 10) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Santos Very High, Olaza High.