Douglas Santos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Douglas Santos's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-5.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.8M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1922 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -72% (IQR -79% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 23 | 1922 | 71% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1326 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 30 | 2698 | 100% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1285 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 26 | 2221 | 82% | 3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 1321 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 28 | 2436 | 90% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1306 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 27 | 2289 | 85% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1334 | 1530 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 28 | 2462 | 91% | 3 | 9 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 1341 | 1544 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 28 | 2452 | 91% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1386 | 1594 | 0.63 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | LB | 27 | 2378 | 78% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1522 | 1410 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | LB | 20 | 1712 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1529 | 1440 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | LM | 3 | 169 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1436 | 1419 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 3 | 262 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 154 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 289 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 9 | 551 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 556 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 444 | 0 | 2 | 1674 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 63 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 397 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1462 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 6 | 506 | 0 | 1 | 1636 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 348 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 5 | 450 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gökhan Gönül Super Lig · 2016 | 31 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Maximiliano Pereira Liga Portugal · 2017 | 33 | €4.0M | €500k | fell |
| Danilo Silva Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sebastián Coates Liga Portugal · 2022 | 32 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Papa Gueye Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Patrick van Aanholt Eredivisie · 2023 | 33 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Borna Barisic Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 30 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Marcelo Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €6.5M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2019 | Hamburg | Zenit S-Pb | €14.0M | €10.0M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Atlético-MG | Hamburg | €6.5M | €6.0M |
| 21 Jul 2015 | Udinese | Atlético-MG | €3.0M | €3.3M |
| 20 Jul 2015 | Atlético-MG | Udinese | Free / loan | €3.3M |
| 14 Aug 2014 | Udinese | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jan 2014 | Granada CF | Udinese | €2.3M | €2.5M |
| 29 Jan 2014 | Udinese | Granada CF | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Sept 2013 | Granada CF | Udinese | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 8 Jul 2013 | Náutico | Granada CF | €2.3M | €1.5M |
| 1 May 2012 | Náutico U20 | Náutico | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.