Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Ola Aina remove | Timothy Castagne remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 30 |
| Position | Right-back | Right-back |
| Club · league | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | Fulham FC · Premier League |
| League strength | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1635 | 1576 |
| League minutes | 1590 (47%) | 1842 (54%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 92 | 90 |
| Market value | €18.0M | €8.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €7.1M – €17.5M | €2.1M – €6.2M |
| Model value | €12.8M – €22.3M | €6.2M – €12.5M |
| Projected value (24m) | €5.8M – €10.0M | €2.4M – €4.3M |
| Bargain Index | 7/100 | 18/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Moderate | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€7.1M – €17.5M Model value (performance-implied)€12.8M – €22.3M Projected value (24 months)€5.8M – €10.0M Dashed line: current market value (€18.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €6.2M Model value (performance-implied)€6.2M – €12.5M Projected value (24 months)€2.4M – €4.3M Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Ola Aina and Timothy Castagne
- Castagne is estimated to cost far less (€2.8M vs €11.1M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Castagne (Bargain Index 18 vs 7) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.