Ola Aina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ola Aina's performance-implied value at EUR 12.8M-22.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.1M-17.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-10.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.1M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1590 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1592
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €10.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 41 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output down 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -67% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1590 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RB | 18 | 1590 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1592 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RB | 35 | 3002 | 88% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1567 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LB | 22 | 1701 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1616 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Torino FC | Serie A | RM | 19 | 870 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 1452 | 1468 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Torino FC | Serie A | LM | 21 | 1443 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1525 | 1423 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Fulham FC | Premier League | RB | 31 | 2670 | 78% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 1583 | 1352 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Torino FC | Serie A | LM | 32 | 2075 | 61% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1416 | 1373 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Torino FC | Serie A | LM | 30 | 2158 | 63% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 1471 | 1504 | 0.78 |
| 2016/17 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 3 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1495 | 1756 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 520 | 0 | 1 | 1571 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 201 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 158 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Torino FC | 3 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Hull City | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Smalling Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Aaron Cresswell Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Willy Boly Premier League · 2020 | 29 | €14.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Victor Lindelöf Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Santiago Arias Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Toby Alderweireld Premier League · 2021 | 32 | €11.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2024 | 29 | €32.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Harry Maguire Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2023 | Torino | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Fulham | Torino | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 11 Sept 2020 | Torino | Fulham | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Chelsea | Torino | €9.8M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Torino | Chelsea | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 14 Aug 2018 | Chelsea | Torino | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 May 2018 | Hull City | Chelsea | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 11 Jul 2017 | Chelsea | Hull City | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chelsea U23 | Chelsea | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.