Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Ollie Watkins remove | Jean-Philippe Mateta remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Aston Villa · Premier League | Crystal Palace · Premier League |
| League strength | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1721 | 1589 |
| League minutes | 2854 (84%) | 2223 (65%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 99 | 98 |
| Market value | €25.0M | €30.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €13.8M – €33.3M | €12.4M – €32.4M |
| Model value | €45.2M – €84.5M | €30.5M – €64.0M |
| Projected value (24m) | €6.8M – €16.0M | €9.7M – €20.3M |
| Bargain Index | 2/100 | 28/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Low | Moderate |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€13.8M – €33.3M Model value (performance-implied)€45.2M – €84.5M Projected value (24 months)€6.8M – €16.0M Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€12.4M – €32.4M Model value (performance-implied)€30.5M – €64.0M Projected value (24 months)€9.7M – €20.3M Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Ollie Watkins and Jean-Philippe Mateta
- Watkins was used far more by the club (84% of minutes vs 65%).
- On value for money the model prefers Mateta (Bargain Index 28 vs 2) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Watkins Low, Mateta Moderate.