Ollie Watkins
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ollie Watkins's performance-implied value at EUR 45.2M-84.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.8M-33.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.8M-16.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (2854 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €22.6M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2854 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.60
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1592
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.8M – €16.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -72% to -54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 37 | 2854 | 83% | 16 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 1592 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 38 | 2610 | 76% | 16 | 8 | 0.83 | 0.61 | 1564 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 37 | 3226 | 94% | 19 | 13 | 0.89 | 0.63 | 1562 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 37 | 3136 | 92% | 15 | 6 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 1570 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 35 | 2955 | 86% | 11 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.52 | 1601 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 37 | 3329 | 97% | 14 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 1570 | 1517 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 14 | 822 | 5 | 2 | 1534 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 12 | 697 | 1 | 4 | 1602 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 4 | 271 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 200 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 2 | 97 | 3 | 0 | 1232 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karim Benzema Laliga · 2019 | 32 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Fernando Torres Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €28.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Heung-min Son Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €50.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Willian Premier League · 2020 | 32 | €22.5M | €5.5M | fell |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €70.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Sadio Mané Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €85.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Olivier Giroud Premier League · 2014 | 28 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Antoine Griezmann Laliga · 2021 | 30 | €60.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept 2020 | Brentford | Aston Villa | €34.0M | €12.0M |
| 18 Jul 2017 | Exeter City | Brentford | €7.2M | €150k |
| 31 May 2015 | Weston-super-M. | Exeter City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Dec 2014 | Exeter City | Weston-super-M. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Exeter U18 | Exeter City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.