Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Thibault De Smet remove | Ludwig Augustinsson remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 32 |
| Position | Left-back | Left-back |
| Club · league | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | RSC Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League |
| League strength | 0.88 | 0.65 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1454 | 1393 |
| League minutes | 1148 (38%) | 1445 (54%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 48 | 49 |
| Market value | €1.8M | €1.5M |
| Estimated acquisition | €531k – €1.5M | €396k – €1.1M |
| Model value | €806k – €2.3M | €641k – €1.9M |
| Projected value (24m) | €673k – €1.9M | €351k – €925k |
| Bargain Index | 81/100 | 14/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€531k – €1.5M Model value (performance-implied)€806k – €2.3M Projected value (24 months)€673k – €1.9M Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€396k – €1.1M Model value (performance-implied)€641k – €1.9M Projected value (24 months)€351k – €925k Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Thibault De Smet and Ludwig Augustinsson
- Smet is 4 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Smet plays in a stronger league (0.88 vs 0.65); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- Augustinsson was used far more by the club (54% of minutes vs 38%).
- On value for money the model prefers Smet (Bargain Index 81 vs 14) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.