Ludwig Augustinsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ludwig Augustinsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €528k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1445 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1394
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €351k – €925k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts; team strength down (-82 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -74% to -42%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1445 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 19 | 1445 | 54% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1394 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 16 | 848 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 1389 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 21 | 1632 | 60% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1365 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | LB | 4 | 130 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1530 | 1430 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 3 | 75 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1483 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 19 | 788 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1485 | 1636 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LM | 23 | 1961 | 64% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1542 | 1384 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LB | 12 | 924 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1517 | 1428 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LB | 34 | 3028 | 99% | 1 | 6 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 1512 | 1564 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LB | 29 | 2535 | 83% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1519 | 1510 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LB | 24 | 2140 | 91% | 1 | 8 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 1302 | 1595 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LB | 31 | 2790 | 94% | 1 | 11 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 1297 | 1500 | 0.53 |
| 2014/15 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LB | 15 | 1305 | 44% | 1 | 6 | 0.48 | 0.25 | 1351 | 1421 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 8 | 629 | 0 | 1 | 1438 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1410 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1282 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 7 | 449 | 1 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1388 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 3 | 305 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Sevilla FC | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sevilla FC | 3 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 5 | 400 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 5 | 471 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 4 | 387 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 540 | 0 | 3 | 1553 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 540 | 0 | 4 | 1360 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1577 |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 180 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1366 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Idrottsföreningen Kamraterna Göteborg | 5 | 439 | 0 | 0 | 1315 |
| 2014/15 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 420 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Ligue 1 · 2021 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Gabriele Angella Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 30 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Jorge Teixeira Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 30 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
| Johan Djourou Super Lig · 2018 | 31 | €850k | €650k | fell |
| Igor Smolnikov Premier Liga · 2021 | 33 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ömer Ali Şahiner Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €1.1M | €350k | fell |
| Djavan Liga Portugal · 2018 | 30 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
| Avdija Vrsajevic Super Lig · 2017 | 31 | €1.3M | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2024 | Sevilla FC | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | RSC Anderlecht | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 16 Aug 2023 | Sevilla FC | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | RCD Mallorca | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Sevilla FC | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Aston Villa | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 11 Jul 2022 | Sevilla FC | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 15 Aug 2021 | Werder Bremen | Sevilla FC | €5.5M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Copenhagen | Werder Bremen | €4.5M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | IFK Göteborg | Copenhagen | €1.3M | €700k |
| 6 Jan 2013 | Brommapojkarna | IFK Göteborg | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | IF Bromma U19 | Brommapojkarna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | IF Bromma U17 | IF Bromma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.