Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Lucas Chaves remove | Adriel remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 25 |
| Position | Goalkeeper | Goalkeeper |
| Club · league | Panetolikos Agrinio · Super League 1 | Avs Futebol · Liga Portugal |
| League strength | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1182 | 1182 |
| League minutes | 1350 (58%) | 1440 (47%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 15 | 11 |
| Market value | €900k | €900k |
| Estimated acquisition | €203k – €805k | €0 – €298k |
| Model value | €280k – €595k | €315k – €681k |
| Projected value (24m) | €254k – €722k | €521k – €1.5M |
| Bargain Index | 50/100 | 97/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Very High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€203k – €805k Model value (performance-implied)€280k – €595k Projected value (24 months)€254k – €722k Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€0 – €298k Model value (performance-implied)€315k – €681k Projected value (24 months)€521k – €1.5M Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Lucas Chaves and Adriel
- Adriel is 5 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Adriel plays in a stronger league (0.58 vs 0.42); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- Adriel is estimated to cost far less (€64k vs €271k mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Adriel (Bargain Index 97 vs 50) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Chaves Very High, Adriel High.