Lucas Chaves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Chaves's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €271k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1350 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1248
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €254k – €722k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 42 pts; league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -70% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1350 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–179%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | GK | 15 | 1350 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1248 | 1182 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | GK | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1281 | 1156 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | GK | 4 | 285 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1361 | 1147 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie MacDonald Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 31 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Matic Kotnik Super League 1 · 2019 | 29 | €600k | €100k | fell |
| Scott Fox Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 31 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kyriakidis Super League 1 · 2019 | 33 | €450k | €150k | fell |
| Nikolaos Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Andrew Hogg Super League 1 · 2016 | 31 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Mike Vanhamel Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 33 | €450k | €100k | fell |
| Markos Vellidis Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Panathinaikos | Argentinos Jrs. | Free / loan | €900k |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Argentinos Jrs. | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2025 | Panetolikos | Argentinos Jrs. | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Jan 2024 | Argentinos Jrs. | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €3.8M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | Huracán | Argentinos Jrs. | Free / loan | €3.8M |
| 1 Jun 2022 | Argentinos Jrs. | Huracán | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Argentinos II | Argentinos Jrs. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Argentinos U20 | Argentinos II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2010 | River Plate U20 | Argentinos U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.