Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Milan Smit remove | Brynjólfur Willumsson remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 23 | 25 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie | FC Groningen · Eredivisie |
| League strength | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1245 | 1248 |
| League minutes | 1362 (45%) | 1208 (40%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 22 | 14 |
| Market value | €2.0M | €900k |
| Estimated acquisition | €919k – €2.9M | €294k – €795k |
| Model value | €519k – €1.3M | €274k – €657k |
| Projected value (24m) | €960k – €4.1M | €474k – €1.3M |
| Bargain Index | 67/100 | 96/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€919k – €2.9M Model value (performance-implied)€519k – €1.3M Projected value (24 months)€960k – €4.1M Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€294k – €795k Model value (performance-implied)€274k – €657k Projected value (24 months)€474k – €1.3M Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Milan Smit and Brynjólfur Willumsson
- Smit is 3 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Willumsson is estimated to cost far less (€391k vs €1.8M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Willumsson (Bargain Index 96 vs 67) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.