Brynjólfur Willumsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brynjólfur Willumsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (1208 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €391k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1208 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1248
- Opponent strength
- 1303
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €474k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -2% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1208 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 27 | 1208 | 39% | 6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 1303 | 1248 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 29 | 944 | 31% | 4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 1278 | 1197 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svetoslav Kovachev Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Esmaël Gonçalves Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 26 | €700k | €1.5M | rose |
| Søren Tengstedt Superliga · 2024 | 24 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Dimitrios Manos Super League 1 · 2019 | 25 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Cristian Chávez Super League 1 · 2014 | 27 | €750k | €1.3M | rose |
| Houssam Ghacha Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Maryan Shved Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Nikola Cumic Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Kristiansund BK | FC Groningen | €75k | €450k |
| 9 Mar 2021 | Breidablik | Kristiansund BK | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Nov 2017 | Breidablik U19 | Breidablik | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.