Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Vinícius Tobias remove | Denso Kasius remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 23 |
| Position | Right-back | Right-back |
| Club · league | FC Shakhtar Donetsk · Premier Liga | AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie |
| League strength | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1420 | 1393 |
| League minutes | 936 (35%) | 1219 (40%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 48 | 44 |
| Market value | €6.0M | €6.0M |
| Estimated acquisition | €3.1M – €7.8M | €3.2M – €7.7M |
| Model value | €1.4M – €4.4M | €1.2M – €2.7M |
| Projected value (24m) | €2.7M – €11.1M | €2.9M – €10.4M |
| Bargain Index | 66/100 | 49/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Low |
| Breakout probability | 16% | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Very High | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€3.1M – €7.8M Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €4.4M Projected value (24 months)€2.7M – €11.1M Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€3.2M – €7.7M Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €2.7M Projected value (24 months)€2.9M – €10.4M Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Vinícius Tobias and Denso Kasius
- Kasius plays in a stronger league (0.43 vs 0.25); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- On value for money the model prefers Tobias (Bargain Index 66 vs 49) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Tobias Very High, Kasius High.