Vinícius Tobias
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vinícius Tobias's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-11.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.8M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 936 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1158
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €11.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -45% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 936 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 19 | 936 | 35% | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 1158 | 1420 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 19 | 1486 | 55% | 0 | 6 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 1165 | 1414 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 398 | 0 | 1 | 1347 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1314 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 432 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kostyantyn Vivcharenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Oleksandr Syrota Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Attila Szalai Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €7.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Maksym Dyachuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Jackson Porozo Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €3.3M | €2.5M | fell |
| Filip Benkovic Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €11.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Lefteris Lyratzis Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €850k | fell |
| Majid Hosseini Super Lig · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | RM Castilla | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Apr 2022 | Shakhtar D. | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 16 Jan 2022 | Internacional | Shakhtar D. | €6.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Inter U20 | Internacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.