Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Serdar Dursun remove | Gedeon Guzina remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 32 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Kocaelispor · Super Lig | FC Orenburg · Premier Liga |
| League strength | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1188 | 1218 |
| League minutes | 1526 (50%) | 1126 (42%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 11 | 11 |
| Market value | €250k | €350k |
| Estimated acquisition | €68k – €338k | €92k – €262k |
| Model value | €196k – €410k | €252k – €471k |
| Projected value (24m) | €107k – €246k | €129k – €327k |
| Bargain Index | No index | 82/100 |
| Development | Low | Low |
| Breakout probability | n/a (age > 23) | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | High | Very High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€68k – €338k Model value (performance-implied)€196k – €410k Projected value (24 months)€107k – €246k Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€92k – €262k Model value (performance-implied)€252k – €471k Projected value (24 months)€129k – €327k Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Serdar Dursun and Gedeon Guzina
- Guzina is 2 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Guzina plays in a stronger league (0.56 vs 0.40); the other's output carries more translation uncertainty.
- Risk differs: Dursun High, Guzina Very High.