Player Comparison
Side by side on performance, context, cost and risk. Differences are explained — no single 'better player' verdict.
| Pablo remove | Brayan Gil remove | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 25 |
| Position | Striker | Striker |
| Club · league | Gil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal | FK Baltika · Premier Liga |
| League strength | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| Team strength (Elo) | 1404 | 1326 |
| League minutes | 1782 (52%) | 1558 (58%) |
| G+A per 90 (raw) | 0.61 | 0.81 |
| G+A per 90 (context-adjusted) | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Passing / defending / progression | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
| Performance percentile | 53 | 37 |
| Market value | €18.0M | €3.5M |
| Estimated acquisition | €14.7M – €28.3M | €1.9M – €5.3M |
| Model value | €2.0M – €13.2M | €940k – €5.5M |
| Projected value (24m) | €9.7M – €27.1M | €2.0M – €5.8M |
| Bargain Index | 16/100 | 59/100 |
| Development | Moderate | Low |
| Breakout probability | 15% | n/a (age > 23) |
| Risk | Moderate | High |
| Data confidence | Medium | Medium |
| Value picture | Estimated acquisition€14.7M – €28.3M Model value (performance-implied)€2.0M – €13.2M Projected value (24 months)€9.7M – €27.1M Dashed line: current market value (€18.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. | Estimated acquisition€1.9M – €5.3M Model value (performance-implied)€940k – €5.5M Projected value (24 months)€2.0M – €5.8M Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median. |
What separates Pablo and Brayan Gil
- Pablo is 3 years younger, which the models associate with more appreciation and resale potential.
- Pablo has higher context-adjusted goal contributions (0.86 vs 0.75 per 90).
- Gil is estimated to cost far less (€3.6M vs €20.7M mid-estimate).
- On value for money the model prefers Gil (Bargain Index 59 vs 16) — this is not a statement about who is the better player.
- Risk differs: Pablo Moderate, Gil High.