Pablo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-13.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.7M-28.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.7M-27.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (1782 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €20.7M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1782 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.61
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.86
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1404
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.7M – €27.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; team strength up (+169 Elo); league level up (+151 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -36% to +30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1782 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | ST | 13 | 954 | 31% | 10 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.86 | 1317 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | SS | 14 | 828 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 1609 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | ST | 20 | 800 | 26% | 5 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.67 | 1348 | 1235 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | ST | 8 | 192 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1440 | 1321 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | RW | 15 | 711 | 23% | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 1485 | 1362 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | ST | 5 | 177 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1370 | 1365 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Waldschmidt Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Abde Ezzalzouli Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Cyril Ngonge Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Wesley Saïd Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Scamacca Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Lebo Mothiba Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marco Richter Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Musa Barrow Serie A · 2020 | 22 | €11.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | West Ham | €23.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Famalicão | Gil Vicente | €250k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Gil Vicente | Famalicão | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Famalicão | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Paços Ferreira | Famalicão | Free / loan | €400k |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Famalicão | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Famalicão U23 | Famalicão | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Famalicão S17 | Famalicão U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.