Joel Robles
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joel Robles's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 55.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €229k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2790 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €126k – €329k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -71% (IQR -86% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1325 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | GK | 29 | 2610 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1359 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | GK | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1688 | 1418 | 1.23 |
| 2020/21 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 18 | 1620 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1562 | 1557 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 33 | 2888 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1541 | 1481 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 5 | 450 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1475 | 1510 | 1.14 |
| 2016/17 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 20 | 1736 | 51% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1523 | 1570 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 13 | 1170 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1526 | 1516 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 7 | 585 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1535 | 1560 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 2 | 156 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1477 | 1654 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Wigan Athletic | Premier League | GK | 9 | 810 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1537 | 1439 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 420 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 8 | 750 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1434 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Everton FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1459 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Fa Cup | Wigan Athletic | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Victor Liga Portugal · 2022 | 35 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Rustam Khudzhamov Premier Liga · 2018 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Rudy Riou Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 36 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Sinan Bolat Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 36 | €500k | €75k | fell |
| José Moreira Liga Portugal · 2017 | 35 | €200k | €25k | fell |
| Cássio Liga Portugal · 2017 | 37 | €250k | €700k | rose |
| Rafael Bracali Liga Portugal · 2016 | 35 | €500k | €50k | fell |
| Haydar Yilmaz Super Lig · 2019 | 35 | €300k | €75k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2024 | Al-Qadsiah | Estoril | Free / loan | €700k |
| 18 Jul 2023 | Leeds | Al-Qadsiah | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Real Betis | Leeds | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Everton | Real Betis | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 9 Jul 2013 | Atlético | Everton | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Wigan | Atlético | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 17 Jan 2013 | Atlético | Wigan | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Rayo Vallecano | Atlético | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jan 2012 | Atlético | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Atl. Madrid C | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Leganés U19 | Atl. Madrid C | €100k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.