Joel Robles

36 yrs · Goalkeeper · Spain
GD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 194 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€350k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€108k – €403k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€288k – €560k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€126k – €329k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€114k – €452k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€108k – €403k
Model value (performance-implied)€288k – €560k
Projected value (24 months)€126k – €329k
Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Joel Robles's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average55.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €229k vs market €350k
Expected appreciationVery low-28% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2790 (91% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
55 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1305
Opponent strength
1325
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€126k – €329k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -71% (IQR -86% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
182 (all positions)
Relative output kept
70%–147%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
73%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalGK31279091%000.000.00132513050.58
2024/25GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalGK29261085%000.000.01135913020.51
2022/23Leeds UnitedPremier LeagueGK436011%000.000.00168814181.23
2020/21Real Betis BalompiéLaligaGK18162047%000.000.00156215571.10
2019/20Real Betis BalompiéLaligaGK33288884%000.000.00154114811.16
2018/19Real Betis BalompiéLaligaGK545013%000.000.00147515101.14
2016/17Everton FCPremier LeagueGK20173651%010.050.05152315701.07
2015/16Everton FCPremier LeagueGK13117034%000.000.00152615161.08
2014/15Everton FCPremier LeagueGK758517%000.000.00153515601.06
2013/14Everton FCPremier LeagueGK21565%000.000.00147716541.12
2012/13Wigan AthleticPremier LeagueGK981024%000.000.00153714391.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Fa CupLeeds United19000—
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié330000—
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié442000—
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié19000—
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié875000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié6540001434
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueEverton FC2180001459
2016/17Fa CupEverton FC19000—
2015/16Fa CupEverton FC545000—
2014/15Fa CupEverton FC221000—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueEverton FC190001538
2013/14Fa CupEverton FC436000—
2012/13Fa CupWigan Athletic436000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Paulo Victor
Liga Portugal · 2022
35€300k€100kfell
Rustam Khudzhamov
Premier Liga · 2018
36€200k€200kflat
Rudy Riou
Jupiler Pro League · 2016
36€300k€300kflat
Sinan Bolat
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
36€500k€75kfell
José Moreira
Liga Portugal · 2017
35€200k€25kfell
Cássio
Liga Portugal · 2017
37€250k€700krose
Rafael Bracali
Liga Portugal · 2016
35€500k€50kfell
Haydar Yilmaz
Super Lig · 2019
35€300k€75kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Jul 2024Al-QadsiahEstorilFree / loan€700k
18 Jul 2023LeedsAl-QadsiahFree / loan€1.0M
9 Aug 2022Real BetisLeedsFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2018EvertonReal BetisFree / loan€3.5M
9 Jul 2013AtléticoEverton€4.0M€3.0M
30 Jun 2013WiganAtléticoFree / loan€2.0M
17 Jan 2013AtléticoWiganFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2012Rayo VallecanoAtléticoFree / loan€2.0M
31 Jan 2012AtléticoRayo VallecanoFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jan 2010Atl. MadrileñoAtléticoUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Atl. Madrid CAtl. MadrileñoUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Leganés U19Atl. Madrid C€100kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.