Óscar Perea
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Óscar Perea's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1258 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1258 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1343
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €715k – €3.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -29% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1258 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | LW | 25 | 1258 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 1343 | 1182 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LW | 2 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1383 | 1506 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richairo Zivkovic Eredivisie · 2016 | 20 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Benjamin Nygren Eredivisie · 2021 | 20 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Fabrice Olinga Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 22 | €700k | €475k | fell |
| Ilya Ishkov Premier Liga · 2024 | 19 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Julen Lobete Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Bertuğ Yıldırım Super Lig · 2023 | 21 | €2.7M | €2.0M | fell |
| Matías Lacava Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Julien Vercauteren Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Avs FS | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Avs FS | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 2 Jul 2024 | Atl. Nacional | R. Strasbourg | €5.2M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Nacional U20 | Atl. Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.