
Benjamin Nygren
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Benjamin Nygren's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-13.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.8M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.4M-19.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (2139 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.3M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2139 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.84
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1199
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.4M – €19.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+65 Elo); league level down (-43 Elo); role change RW -> AM; relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -46% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 33 | 2139 | 72% | 15 | 5 | 0.84 | 0.46 | 1199 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RW | 20 | 1656 | 84% | 9 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 1295 | 1341 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | SS | 15 | 561 | 28% | 3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 1269 | 1444 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RW | 15 | 273 | 14% | 2 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.52 | 1286 | 1352 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RW | 17 | 465 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 1344 | 1287 | 0.60 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | ST | 4 | 299 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1315 | 1231 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RW | 28 | 1276 | 42% | 4 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 1366 | 1271 | 0.56 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | SS | 3 | 82 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1312 | 1414 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 2 | 119 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.18 | 1365 | 1429 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 10 | 616 | 4 | 1 | 1492 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 4 | 318 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 3 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 196 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 226 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 1451 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 6 | 432 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 162 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozan Tufan Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €11.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| İrfan Can Kahveci Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €7.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Evander Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Alexandru Cicâldău Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Sven Mijnans Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €6.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| In-beom Hwang Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €4.5M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Nordsjaelland | Celtic | €1.5M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Genk | Nordsjaelland | €600k | €1.2M |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Heerenveen | Genk | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 6 Oct 2020 | Genk | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | IFK Göteborg | Genk | €3.7M | €3.7M |
| 8 Jun 2018 | IFK U19 | IFK Göteborg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2017 | IFK U17 | IFK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.