Gift Orban
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gift Orban's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-16.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-9.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-10.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (2038 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.7M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2038 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.67
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €10.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; changed club; team strength down (-179 Elo); relative output up 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -48% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 28 | 2038 | 60% | 7 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 1492 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | ST | 13 | 690 | 23% | 4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 1476 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 3 | 186 | 6% | 2 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.61 | 1529 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 17 | 829 | 31% | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 1349 | 1436 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 13 | 473 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.42 | 1478 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 10 | 790 | 26% | 9 | 2 | 1.25 | 0.63 | 1284 | 1451 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1450 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 5 | 356 | 4 | 0 | 1446 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Javairô Dilrosun Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Simone Verdi Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €6.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| David Okereke Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €4.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Wesley Saïd Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Innocent Emeghara Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.5M | €900k | fell |
| Alberto Paloschi Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Adam Ounas Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Hellas Verona | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 27 Aug 2025 | Hoffenheim | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 2 Jan 2025 | Lyon | Hoffenheim | €9.0M | €10.0M |
| 18 Jan 2024 | KAA Gent | Lyon | €14.0M | €15.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Stabæk | KAA Gent | €4.6M | €1.0M |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Bison FC | Stabæk | Unknown | €100k |
| 2 Aug 2022 | Stabæk | Bison FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 18 May 2022 | Bison FC | Stabæk | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.