Alex Opoku Sarfo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alex Opoku Sarfo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (1260 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €930k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1260 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1362
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €571k – €3.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -42% to +267%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1260 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | DM | 14 | 1260 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1362 | 1176 | 0.56 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godfried Roemeratoe Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €725k | €450k | fell |
| Dirk Proper Eredivisie · 2022 | 20 | €900k | €6.0M | rose |
| Ömer Beyaz Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Luís Silva Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €1.2M | €250k | fell |
| Mor Ndiaye Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Dmytro Grechyshkin Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Rominigue Kouamé Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €800k | €5.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Diomandé Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.3M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Pari NN | Aris Limassol | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Aris Limassol | Pari NN | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | AEZ Zakakiou | Aris Limassol | Free / loan | €175k |
| 16 Aug 2023 | Aris Limassol | AEZ Zakakiou | Free / loan | €25k |
| 5 Jul 2023 | Benab FC | Aris Limassol | Unknown | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.