
Leandro Cabrera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leandro Cabrera's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 80.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €384k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €329k – €891k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 50% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -69% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1488 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2870 | 84% | 4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 1524 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2672 | 78% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1528 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1532 | 1416 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 17 | 1530 | 45% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1536 | 1432 | 1.16 |
| 2019/20 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 18 | 1530 | 45% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1521 | 1579 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2793 | 82% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1561 | 1583 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Getafe CF | Laliga | LB | 9 | 720 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1510 | 1503 | 1.11 |
| 2017/18 | FC Crotone | Serie A | CB | 5 | 365 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1448 | 1328 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 4 | 345 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Getafe CF | 3 | 256 | 1 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 4 | 334 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | FC Crotone | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunis Abdelhamid Ligue 1 · 2023 | 36 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Vangelis Moras Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Paul Verhaegh Bundesliga · 2018 | 35 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Sylvain Armand Ligue 1 · 2015 | 35 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Emmerson Boyce Premier League · 2013 | 34 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Daniel Congré Ligue 1 · 2019 | 34 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Emiliano Moretti Serie A · 2016 | 35 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| Danilo Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2020 | Getafe | Espanyol | €9.0M | €10.0M |
| 5 Jul 2018 | Crotone | Getafe | €600k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Getafe | Crotone | Free / loan | €600k |
| 15 Jan 2018 | Crotone | Getafe | Free / loan | €600k |
| 14 Jul 2017 | Real Zaragoza | Crotone | Free / loan | €800k |
| 12 Aug 2014 | RM Castilla | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Sept 2013 | Atlético | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Hércules CF | Atlético | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Aug 2012 | Atlético | Hércules CF | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2012 | CD Numancia | Atlético | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Aug 2011 | Atlético | CD Numancia | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Recr. Huelva | Atlético | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Aug 2010 | Atlético | Recr. Huelva | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 16 Jul 2009 | Defensor SC | Atlético | €1.5M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Defensor SC U19 | Defensor SC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.