Leandro Cabrera

35 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Uruguay
RCD Espanyol Barcelona · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€900k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€288k – €867k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€828k – €1.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€329k – €891k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€39k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€288k – €867k
Model value (performance-implied)€828k – €1.6M
Projected value (24 months)€329k – €891k
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Leandro Cabrera's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh80.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €384k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationVery low-31% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3330 (97% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
80 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1399
Opponent strength
1488
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€329k – €891k

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 50% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -69% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaCB37333097%300.080.10148813990.95
2024/25RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaCB33287084%420.190.20152414110.95
2022/23RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaCB32267278%010.030.06152813820.98
2021/22RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaCB37333097%200.050.08153214161.05
2019/20RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaCB17153045%010.060.08153614321.16
2019/20Getafe CFLaligaCB18153045%200.120.09152115791.16
2018/19Getafe CFLaligaCB32279382%200.060.07156115831.14
2017/18Getafe CFLaligaLB972021%000.000.08151015031.11
2017/18FC CrotoneSerie ACB536511%000.000.07144813280.86

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Copa Del ReyRCD Espanyol Barcelona434500—
2021/22Copa Del ReyRCD Espanyol Barcelona330000—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueGetafe CF3256101555
2018/19Copa Del ReyGetafe CF433401—
2017/18Italy CupFC Crotone218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Yunis Abdelhamid
Ligue 1 · 2023
36€700k€400kfell
Vangelis Moras
Serie A · 2015
34€600k€250kfell
Paul Verhaegh
Bundesliga · 2018
35€1.0M€250kfell
Sylvain Armand
Ligue 1 · 2015
35€500k€250kfell
Emmerson Boyce
Premier League · 2013
34€1.0M€250kfell
Daniel Congré
Ligue 1 · 2019
34€750k€500kfell
Emiliano Moretti
Serie A · 2016
35€900k€300kfell
Danilo
Serie A · 2017
33€2.0M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
20 Jan 2020GetafeEspanyol€9.0M€10.0M
5 Jul 2018CrotoneGetafe€600k€600k
30 Jun 2018GetafeCrotoneFree / loan€600k
15 Jan 2018CrotoneGetafeFree / loan€600k
14 Jul 2017Real ZaragozaCrotoneFree / loan€800k
12 Aug 2014RM CastillaReal ZaragozaFree / loanData unavailable
2 Sept 2013AtléticoRM CastillaFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2013Hércules CFAtléticoFree / loan€1.5M
2 Aug 2012AtléticoHércules CFFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2012CD NumanciaAtléticoFree / loan€600k
31 Aug 2011AtléticoCD NumanciaFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2011Recr. HuelvaAtléticoFree / loan€800k
14 Aug 2010AtléticoRecr. HuelvaFree / loan€1.0M
16 Jul 2009Defensor SCAtlético€1.5MData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Defensor SC U19Defensor SCUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.