Bjørn Paulsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bjørn Paulsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 2.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €30k vs market €25k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +73% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 669 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1215
- Opponent strength
- 1243
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22k – €106k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -32% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 669 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 16 | 669 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1243 | 1215 | 0.47 |
| 2023/24 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1185 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1318 | 1220 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 19 | 1700 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1284 | 1240 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | RM | 20 | 1435 | 61% | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 1316 | 1206 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | LM | 25 | 2250 | 76% | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 1302 | 1224 | 0.53 |
| 2015/16 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | CM | 7 | 630 | 21% | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1315 | 1403 | 0.53 |
| 2014/15 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RM | 32 | 2569 | 86% | 4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 1367 | 1255 | 0.48 |
| 2013/14 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | CB | 32 | 2829 | 95% | 4 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 1350 | 1338 | 0.63 |
| 2012/13 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | CB | 31 | 1867 | 63% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1356 | 1303 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 3 | 67 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 5 | 510 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 2 | 117 | 3 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agus García Superliga · 2019 | 34 | €100k | €225k | rose |
| Pavel Alikin Premier Liga · 2021 | 37 | €50k | €25k | fell |
| Andreas Bjelland Superliga · 2024 | 36 | €75k | €25k | fell |
| Alexandru Epureanu Super Lig · 2023 | 37 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Giannis Christou Super League 1 · 2016 | 35 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Anton Kravchenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 33 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Salih Dursun Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Hasan Ali Kaldırım Super Lig · 2024 | 35 | €100k | €75k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Odense BK | Retired | Unknown | €25k |
| 12 Jul 2022 | Hammarby | Odense BK | Unknown | €450k |
| 15 Jul 2021 | FC Ingolstadt | Hammarby | Free / loan | €500k |
| 7 Jan 2019 | Hammarby | FC Ingolstadt | €500k | €900k |
| 16 Jan 2017 | Esbjerg fB | Hammarby | €245k | €400k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | SönderjyskE | Esbjerg fB | €550k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Sönderjyske U19 | SönderjyskE | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.