Mathias de Amorim
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathias de Amorim's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-6.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.6M-17.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.9M-22.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2470 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.6M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 40% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2470 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1318
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 40%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.9M – €22.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 46 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -22% to +20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CM | 30 | 2470 | 81% | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1318 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CM | 24 | 1069 | 35% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1320 | 1333 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sem Steijn Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €10.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Yusuf Yazıcı Super Lig · 2018 | 21 | €12.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Christian Atsu Eredivisie · 2014 | 22 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| İrfan Can Kahveci Super Lig · 2019 | 24 | €7.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Samuel Bastien Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €4.8M | €2.2M | fell |
| Valeri Qazaishvili Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Mathias Normann Premier Liga · 2020 | 24 | €4.8M | €10.0M | rose |
| Tomás Händel Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2024 | G. Bordeaux | Famalicão | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | G. Bordeaux B | G. Bordeaux | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bordeaux U19 | G. Bordeaux B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bordeaux U17 | Bordeaux U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bordeaux Yth. | Bordeaux U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.