Joël Veltman

34 yrs · Right-back (also CB) · Netherlands
Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.5M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€557k – €2.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €3.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€599k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €2.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€557k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €3.5M
Projected value (24 months)€599k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Joël Veltman's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh89th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €877k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1050 (31% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1611
Opponent strength
1583
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€599k – €1.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; relative output up 136% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -62% to -41%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1050 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueRB24105031%100.090.12158316111.30
2024/25Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueRB21169950%000.000.05158216141.23
2023/24Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueRB27158246%110.110.12159815201.14
2022/23Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueRB31219364%110.080.10153016191.23
2021/22Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueCB34288184%110.060.07158815371.17
2020/21Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueRB28228267%110.080.12155114921.19
2019/20Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB19165173%000.000.01134616800.62
2018/19Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieRB947916%100.190.07136117460.61
2017/18Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieRB30248581%110.070.05130816270.59
2016/17Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieRB30269588%030.100.06133616270.54
2015/16Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB34302699%280.300.12131316190.58
2014/15Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB25218671%400.160.08132515430.52
2013/14Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB25215770%220.170.08132615510.59
2012/13Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieRB732211%000.000.07131915440.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion216700—
2024/25Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion216802—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion6376001500
2022/23Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion311900—
2021/22Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion212100—
2020/21Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion312100—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam5428001668
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam4360001500
2019/20Johan Cruijff SchaalAjax Amsterdam190001642
2019/20Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam11400—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam5309001780
2017/18Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam220300—
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam2180001567
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam2180011412
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam10794001550
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam4360001465
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam5450001515
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam2180001375
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam2161001412
2015/16Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam19000—
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam5431001619
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam3283001529
2014/15Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam19000—
2013/14Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam430300—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam3228001602
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam190001625
2013/14Johan Cruijff SchaalAjax Amsterdam11001315
2012/13Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam318700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Coke
Laliga · 2020
33€1.2M€600kfell
Marcos Angeleri
Laliga · 2016
33€1.0M€400kfell
David Abraham
Bundesliga · 2021
35€1.0M€1.0Mflat
James Collins
Premier League · 2018
35€1.0M€600kfell
Angelo Ogbonna
Premier League · 2022
34€1.2M€700kfell
Carlos Gurpegui
Laliga · 2015
35€1.0M€500kfell
Ciaran Clark
Premier League · 2022
33€1.8M€600kfell
Arthur Boka
Laliga · 2016
33€1.5M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026BrightonWithout ClubUnknown€1.5M
29 Jul 2020AjaxBrighton€1.0M€8.0M
1 Jul 2012Ajax U21AjaxUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2011Ajax U19Ajax U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Ajax U18Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Ajax U17Ajax U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.