Granit Xhaka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Granit Xhaka's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-10.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-9.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.84x the positional average in the league (2901 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 96th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.4M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2901 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1611
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-186 Elo); league level up (+126 Elo); relative output up 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -66% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | DM | 34 | 2901 | 85% | 1 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 1611 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | DM | 33 | 2891 | 94% | 2 | 7 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 1489 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | DM | 33 | 2827 | 92% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1506 | 1787 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 37 | 3004 | 88% | 7 | 7 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 1566 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 27 | 2331 | 68% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1575 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 31 | 2526 | 74% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1549 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 31 | 2591 | 76% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1568 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 29 | 2501 | 73% | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1535 | 1733 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 38 | 3266 | 95% | 1 | 7 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 1538 | 1665 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 32 | 2486 | 73% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1521 | 1681 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 28 | 2368 | 77% | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1533 | 1596 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2639 | 86% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1529 | 1645 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 28 | 2025 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1562 | 1555 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 22 | 1473 | 48% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1452 | 1550 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 127 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 10 | 818 | 0 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 386 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 11 | 892 | 0 | 2 | 1569 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 437 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 570 | 2 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 10 | 846 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1842 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 6 | 453 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 9 | 760 | 0 | 3 | 1593 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 495 | 1 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2017/18 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1756 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 479 | 1 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 5 | 451 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | 1719 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 588 | 2 | 1 | 1525 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 297 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 1395 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 1495 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Groß Premier League · 2024 | 33 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| João Moutinho Premier League · 2019 | 33 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Santi Cazorla Laliga · 2019 | 35 | €4.0M | €2.3M | fell |
| Bruno Soriano Laliga · 2014 | 30 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Steven Gerrard Premier League · 2013 | 33 | €11.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Daniel Caligiuri Bundesliga · 2019 | 31 | €6.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kevin Nolan Premier League · 2014 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Raúl García Laliga · 2018 | 32 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | Leverkusen | Sunderland | €15.0M | €12.0M |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Arsenal | Leverkusen | €15.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Mönchengladbach | Arsenal | €45.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Basel | Mönchengladbach | €8.5M | €8.5M |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Basel U21 | Basel | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | FC Basel U18 | FC Basel U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | FC Basel U16 | FC Basel U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | FC Basel Yth. | FC Basel U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | FC Basel Yth. | FC Basel Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2003 | Concordia Yth. | FC Basel Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.