
Bruno Martins Indi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bruno Martins Indi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 41.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €102k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2211 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1318
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €149k – €296k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 54 pts; changed club; team strength down (-253 Elo); relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -52% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 27 | 2211 | 72% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1318 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 10 | 551 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1308 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 14 | 755 | 25% | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.15 | 1401 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 4 | 315 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1306 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2772 | 91% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1344 | 1496 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 27 | 2283 | 75% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1364 | 1557 | 0.56 |
| 2017/18 | Stoke City | Premier League | CB | 17 | 1246 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1625 | 1434 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Stoke City | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3147 | 92% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1535 | 1470 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 2070 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1379 | 1515 | 0.58 |
| 2013/14 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 26 | 2282 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1343 | 1518 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2763 | 90% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1356 | 1449 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 200 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1589 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 165 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1339 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 252 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 288 | 1 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Stoke City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1566 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2012/13 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Kortegaard Superliga · 2018 | 34 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Stevie Hammell Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 34 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Andreas Beck Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 35 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Athanasios Papageorgiou Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Alper Uludağ Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| André Calisir Superliga · 2022 | 32 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Kyriakos Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Giannis Kontoes Super League 1 · 2018 | 32 | €350k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €650k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | Stoke City | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | AZ Alkmaar | Stoke City | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 6 Oct 2020 | Stoke City | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 10 Aug 2017 | Porto | Stoke City | €7.7M | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Stoke City | Porto | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Porto | Stoke City | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 15 Jul 2014 | Feyenoord | Porto | €7.7M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Feyenoord U21 | Feyenoord | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Spartaan Yth. | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.