Bruno Martins Indi

34 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Netherlands
Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€300k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€77k – €240k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€257k – €747k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€149k – €296k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€17k – €671k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€77k – €240k
Model value (performance-implied)€257k – €747k
Projected value (24 months)€149k – €296k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Bruno Martins Indi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage41.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €102k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €11.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2211 (72% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
42 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1213
Opponent strength
1318
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€149k – €296k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 54 pts; changed club; team strength down (-253 Elo); relative output up 42% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -52% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Sparta RotterdamEredivisieCB27221172%100.040.05131812130.43
2024/25AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCB1055118%000.000.03130814660.50
2023/24AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCB1475525%120.360.15140114410.48
2022/23AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCB431510%000.000.03130615300.58
2021/22AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCB31277291%200.060.04134414960.60
2020/21AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCB27228375%110.080.05136415570.56
2017/18Stoke CityPremier LeagueCB17124636%000.000.04162514341.15
2016/17Stoke CityPremier LeagueCB35314792%100.030.04153514701.07
2015/16FC PortoLiga PortugalCB23207068%000.000.01137915150.58
2013/14Feyenoord RotterdamEredivisieLB26228275%210.120.09134315180.59
2012/13Feyenoord RotterdamEredivisieCB32276390%110.070.04135614490.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerSparta Rotterdam320010—
2024/25Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar29900—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar190001589
2023/24Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar216501—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar6540001339
2021/22Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar325200—
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar2180001540
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar4288101585
2020/21Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar14500—
2016/17Fa CupStoke City19000—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto6540001566
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueFC Porto190001672
2013/14Knvb BekerFeyenoord Rotterdam330000—
2013/14Uefa Europa League QualifyingFeyenoord Rotterdam2180001564
2012/13Knvb BekerFeyenoord Rotterdam333000—
2012/13Uefa Champions League QualifyingFeyenoord Rotterdam2180001556
2012/13Uefa Europa League QualifyingFeyenoord Rotterdam2180001466

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Thomas Kortegaard
Superliga · 2018
34€200k€150kfell
Stevie Hammell
Scottish Premiership · 2016
34€400k€400kflat
Andreas Beck
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
35€200k€200kflat
Athanasios Papageorgiou
Super League 1 · 2019
32€300k€150kfell
Alper Uludağ
Super Lig · 2023
33€350k€150kfell
André Calisir
Superliga · 2022
32€250k€200kfell
Kyriakos Papadopoulos
Super League 1 · 2024
32€350k€250kfell
Giannis Kontoes
Super League 1 · 2018
32€350k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
15 Jul 2025AZ AlkmaarSparta R.Free / loan€650k
5 Jul 2021Stoke CityAZ AlkmaarUnknown€3.0M
30 Jun 2021AZ AlkmaarStoke CityFree / loan€3.0M
6 Oct 2020Stoke CityAZ AlkmaarFree / loan€3.5M
10 Aug 2017PortoStoke City€7.7M€11.0M
30 Jun 2017Stoke CityPortoFree / loan€11.0M
31 Aug 2016PortoStoke CityFree / loan€10.0M
15 Jul 2014FeyenoordPorto€7.7M€6.0M
1 Jan 2012Feyenoord U21FeyenoordUnknown€450k
1 Jul 2010Feyenoord U19Feyenoord U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Feyenoord U17Feyenoord U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Feyenoord YouthFeyenoord U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Spartaan Yth.Feyenoord YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.