Marcos Alonso

35 yrs · Centre-back (also LB, LM) · Spain
Celta de Vigo · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€387k – €1.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €2.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€380k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€356k – €2.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€387k – €1.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €2.8M
Projected value (24 months)€380k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marcos Alonso's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh87.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €872k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2770 (81% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1498
Opponent strength
1489
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€380k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 56% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -65% to -45%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Celta de VigoLaligaCB32277081%100.030.05148914980.95
2024/25Celta de VigoLaligaCB31264977%300.100.10152414760.95
2023/24FC BarcelonaLaligaLB52507%000.000.07147317231.00
2022/23FC BarcelonaLaligaCB24116234%100.080.05147116960.98
2021/22Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLM28217264%450.370.23160117371.17
2020/21Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLM1395928%200.190.16156217351.19
2019/20Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLB18143242%430.440.27159016531.14
2018/19Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLB31276181%260.260.16154117501.22
2017/18Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLM33286084%720.280.18154716671.15
2016/17Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLM31269479%630.300.23152917561.07
2016/17ACF FiorentinaSerie ALM21805%000.000.29163515230.88
2015/16ACF FiorentinaSerie ALM31234769%340.270.31149315630.95
2014/15ACF FiorentinaSerie ALB22168549%130.210.16148916000.93
2013/14Sunderland AFCPremier LeagueLB16144042%020.130.17154614651.12
2013/14ACF FiorentinaSerie ALB31585%000.000.08144515700.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueCelta de Vigo11989001505
2024/25Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo221010—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona3139001543
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona5406101727
2022/23Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona526700—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Barcelona275101686
2022/23SupercopaFC Barcelona141001616
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC8548001632
2021/22Fa CupChelsea FC328410—
2021/22Uefa Super CupChelsea FC1120001689
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC2180001774
2020/21Fa CupChelsea FC211300—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC5398001707
2019/20Fa CupChelsea FC436000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueChelsea FC4335211533
2018/19Fa CupChelsea FC218000—
2018/19Community ShieldChelsea FC190001831
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC7598011725
2017/18Fa CupChelsea FC330011—
2017/18Community ShieldChelsea FC179001681
2016/17Fa CupChelsea FC327000—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueACF Fiorentina7558001539
2015/16Italy CupACF Fiorentina13500—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueACF Fiorentina10723101634
2014/15Italy CupACF Fiorentina326400—
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueACF Fiorentina5450001453
2013/14Uefa Europa League QualifyingACF Fiorentina115001377
2013/14Fa CupSunderland AFC11300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dante
Ligue 1 · 2018
35€1.5M€800kfell
Nicolas Pallois
Ligue 1 · 2022
35€1.5M€600kfell
Bostjan Cesar
Serie A · 2016
34€700k€200kfell
Hilton
Ligue 1 · 2013
36€500k€250kfell
Anthony Jung
Bundesliga · 2024
33€1.0M€600kfell
Niklas Moisander
Bundesliga · 2019
34€2.0M€700kfell
Emir Spahic
Bundesliga · 2016
36€1.0M€750kfell
Cédric Kanté
Ligue 1 · 2013
34€750k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
28 Aug 2024BarcelonaCelta de VigoFree / loan€2.0M
1 Sept 2022ChelseaBarcelonaFree / loan€12.0M
31 Aug 2016FiorentinaChelsea€23.0M€9.0M
30 Jun 2014SunderlandFiorentinaFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jan 2014FiorentinaSunderlandFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2013BoltonFiorentinaFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2010RM CastillaBolton€2.4MData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Real Madrid U19RM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Real Madrid U18Real Madrid U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Real Madrid U17Real Madrid U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005R.Madrid Yth.Real Madrid U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.