Matheus Alves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matheus Alves's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-11.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-15.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1018 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.8M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1018 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1357
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €15.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +50% (IQR +11% to +108%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1018 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 19 | 1018 | 38% | 3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 1357 | 1436 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 8 | 400 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zakaria Labyad Eredivisie · 2014 | 21 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ianis Hagi Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 22 | €4.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Mandela Keita Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Leander Dendoncker Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 20 | €4.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Felipe Gutiérrez Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €3.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 20 | €4.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Renato Tapia Eredivisie · 2016 | 21 | €2.8M | €4.0M | rose |
| Matus Bero Super Lig · 2017 | 22 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | São Paulo | CSKA Moscow | €5.1M | €3.5M |
| 29 Jan 2025 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.