Leander Dendoncker

31 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CB, CM) · Belgium
Real Oviedo · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
21/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.8M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€528k – €2.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €3.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€600k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€969k – €3.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€528k – €2.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €3.7M
Projected value (24 months)€600k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Leander Dendoncker's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1333 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 21

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average71.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.2M vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-46% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €32.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1333 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
71 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1294
Opponent strength
1501
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€600k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; changed club; team strength down (-182 Elo); league level up (+117 Elo); relative output up 140% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -64% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1333 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real OviedoLaligaDM19133339%100.070.13150112940.95
2024/25RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueDM20173864%010.050.06136414760.63
2023/24Aston VillaPremier LeagueDM81193%100.760.16163015861.14
2023/24SSC NapoliSerie ADM3211%000.000.08141915690.98
2022/23Aston VillaPremier LeagueDM2068920%000.000.07157516251.23
2022/23Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueCM42136%000.000.15145214971.23
2021/22Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueDM30194857%220.180.17161115081.17
2020/21Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueDM33250073%100.040.05154115161.19
2019/20Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueCM38279482%400.130.15158216131.14
2018/19Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueCM19146943%200.120.18157015511.22
2017/18RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueCB27224683%010.040.04134614900.63
2016/17RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueDM302700100%300.100.07133415760.62
2015/16RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueDM17138451%110.130.07132215100.57
2014/15RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueDM18124646%200.140.08130414600.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueRSC Anderlecht8714001551
2023/24Fa CupAston Villa17000—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAston Villa121001217
2022/23Fa CupAston Villa18500—
2021/22Fa CupWolverhampton Wanderers216400—
2020/21Fa CupWolverhampton Wanderers326500—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueWolverhampton Wanderers11604101509
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingWolverhampton Wanderers6488101364
2019/20Fa CupWolverhampton Wanderers218000—
2018/19Fa CupWolverhampton Wanderers544900—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueRSC Anderlecht6540001772
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueRSC Anderlecht121110101535
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingRSC Anderlecht2180001524
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingRSC Anderlecht2180001382
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueRSC Anderlecht6547001579
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueRSC Anderlecht2171001626
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueRSC Anderlecht4141001698
2013/14Volkswagen SupercupRSC Anderlecht19001453

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Francesco Lodi
Serie A · 2015
31€2.0M€750kfell
Manuel Iturra
Serie A · 2016
32€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Blerim Dzemaili
Serie A · 2018
32€2.5M€800kfell
Florent Mollet
Ligue 1 · 2023
32€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Grégory Bourillon
Ligue 1 · 2015
31€1.5M€500kfell
Makoto Hasebe
Bundesliga · 2014
30€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Yevgen Shakhov
Serie A · 2020
30€1.6M€600kfell
Valon Behrami
Serie A · 2018
33€1.0M€475kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
19 Aug 2025Aston VillaReal OviedoFree / loan€4.5M
30 Jun 2025RSC AnderlechtAston VillaFree / loan€4.5M
31 Aug 2024Aston VillaRSC AnderlechtFree / loan€7.0M
30 Jun 2024NapoliAston VillaFree / loan€7.0M
26 Jan 2024Aston VillaNapoliFree / loan€11.0M
1 Sept 2022WolvesAston Villa€15.0M€28.0M
1 Jul 2019RSC AnderlechtWolves€13.8M€18.0M
30 Jun 2019WolvesRSC AnderlechtFree / loan€18.0M
9 Aug 2018RSC AnderlechtWolvesFree / loan€17.0M
1 Jul 2014Anderlecht U21RSC AnderlechtUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2013Anderlecht U19Anderlecht U21Unknown€100k
1 Jul 2012Anderlecht U17Anderlecht U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Anderlecht Yth.Anderlecht U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Roeselare Yth.Anderlecht Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Leander Dendoncker · MoneyballAI