Jerolldino Bergraaf
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jerolldino Bergraaf's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (1046 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 100
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €200k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 33% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1046 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 33%
- Resale range (24m)
- €248k – €759k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -32% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1046 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 24 | 1046 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.34 | 1309 | 1183 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 47 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jakobsen Superliga · 2019 | 20 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Vladyslav Alekseyev Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| João Diogo Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Artur Remenyak Premier Liga · 2021 | 21 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Ilias Stavropoulos Super League 1 · 2014 | 19 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Kevin Brobbey Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 21 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Mollo Bessala Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €400k | €275k | fell |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Eredivisie · 2017 | 20 | €400k | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Excelsior U18 | Excelsior | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Excelsior U17 | Excelsior U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Excelsior Jeugd | Excelsior U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.