Taiwo Awoniyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Taiwo Awoniyi's performance-implied value at EUR 7.5M-12.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-8.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-8.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.51x the positional average in the league (481 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 82.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.3M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 481 (14% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.76
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1617
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €8.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -88% to -56%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 481 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 17 | 481 | 14% | 4 | 2 | 1.12 | 0.76 | 1617 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 26 | 399 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 1594 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 20 | 1046 | 31% | 6 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.89 | 1617 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 27 | 1411 | 41% | 10 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 1593 | 1433 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 2202 | 72% | 15 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.61 | 1523 | 1568 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 1366 | 45% | 5 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 1553 | 1508 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 12 | 476 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 1503 | 1471 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Royal Excel Mouscron (-2022) | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 9 | 712 | 26% | 7 | 2 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1410 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2018/19 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 16 | 557 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1374 | 1478 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Royal Excel Mouscron (-2022) | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 27 | 2184 | 81% | 7 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 1375 | 1207 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 18 | 957 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.42 | 1363 | 1223 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 326 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 2 | 146 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 4 | 255 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 118 | 2 | 1 | 1389 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 4 | 284 | 1 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 43 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakary Sako Premier League · 2018 | 30 | €5.0M | €400k | fell |
| Augusto Solari Laliga · 2021 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Roger Assalé Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €6.0M | €700k | fell |
| Ivan Cavaleiro Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Sargis Adamyan Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Hélder Costa Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €10.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Gareth Bale Premier League · 2021 | 32 | €18.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Cristian Tello Laliga · 2021 | 30 | €7.5M | €2.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Union Berlin | Nott'm Forest | €20.5M | €20.0M |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Liverpool | Union Berlin | €8.6M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Union Berlin | Liverpool | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 19 Sept 2020 | Liverpool | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €3.2M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Mainz | Liverpool | Free / loan | €3.2M |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Liverpool | Mainz | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Mouscron | Liverpool | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 12 Jan 2019 | Liverpool | Mouscron | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 11 Jan 2019 | KAA Gent | Liverpool | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 23 Jul 2018 | Liverpool | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Mouscron | Liverpool | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Liverpool | Mouscron | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | NEC Nijmegen | Liverpool | Free / loan | €400k |
| 26 Aug 2016 | Liverpool | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | FSV Frankfurt | Liverpool | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Sept 2015 | Liverpool | FSV Frankfurt | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Imperial Acad. | Liverpool | €1.1M | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.