Denys Marchenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denys Marchenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €665k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 930 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1070
- Opponent strength
- 1163
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €320k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -28% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 930 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | GK | 11 | 930 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1163 | 1070 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | GK | 11 | 990 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1203 | 1098 | 0.28 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdulsamed Damlu Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Christos Mandas Super League 1 · 2021 | 20 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| George Wickens Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Mykyta Turbayevskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Oscar Hedvall Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Abdulkadir Sünger Super Lig · 2021 | 21 | €200k | €175k | flat |
| Orest Kostyk Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Georgiy Yermakov Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €200k | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2025 | Obolon U19 | Obolon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Obolon Kyiv U17 | Obolon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.