Antoine Griezmann
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antoine Griezmann's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-7.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-6.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-4.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1468 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 91.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.6M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -65% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1468 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.67
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €4.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -76% (IQR -79% to -66%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1468 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 34 | 1468 | 43% | 7 | 4 | 0.67 | 0.52 | 1484 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 38 | 2482 | 73% | 8 | 7 | 0.54 | 0.48 | 1512 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 33 | 2654 | 78% | 16 | 6 | 0.75 | 0.51 | 1495 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 38 | 2860 | 84% | 15 | 17 | 1.01 | 0.56 | 1505 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 26 | 1707 | 50% | 3 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 1502 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 3 | 264 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1525 | 1686 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 36 | 2620 | 77% | 13 | 8 | 0.72 | 0.42 | 1540 | 1743 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 35 | 2559 | 75% | 9 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 1524 | 1813 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 37 | 3203 | 94% | 15 | 8 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 1544 | 1736 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 32 | 2530 | 74% | 19 | 9 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 1559 | 1768 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 36 | 3067 | 90% | 16 | 8 | 0.70 | 0.45 | 1556 | 1792 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 38 | 3056 | 89% | 22 | 6 | 0.82 | 0.57 | 1565 | 1829 | 1.17 |
| 2013/14 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 35 | 2660 | 78% | 16 | 4 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 1542 | 1601 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | SS | 34 | 2846 | 83% | 10 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 1511 | 1632 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 15 | 871 | 2 | 3 | 1698 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 498 | 5 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 733 | 6 | 2 | 1668 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 335 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 823 | 6 | 1 | 1687 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 321 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 120 | 1 | 1 | 1810 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 405 | 1 | 1 | 1592 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 519 | 4 | 2 | 1737 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 34 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 541 | 3 | 4 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 7 | 503 | 2 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 240 | 2 | 1 | 1571 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 9 | 657 | 2 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 195 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 720 | 4 | 2 | 1650 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 88 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Super Cup | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1885 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 630 | 6 | 4 | 1584 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 529 | 2 | 2 | 1646 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 183 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 12 | 1068 | 6 | 2 | 1694 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 424 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 13 | 1138 | 7 | 1 | 1712 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 190 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 491 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 7 | 385 | 3 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Eto'o Premier League · 2014 | 33 | €9.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Luis Suárez Laliga · 2022 | 35 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Papu Gómez Laliga · 2021 | 33 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Kevin Kuranyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €5.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Ángel Di María Serie A · 2023 | 35 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Carlos Bacca Laliga · 2019 | 33 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Dries Mertens Serie A · 2020 | 33 | €20.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| José Luis Morales Laliga · 2023 | 36 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barcelona | Atlético | €22.0M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Atlético | Barcelona | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Barcelona | Atlético | Free / loan | €60.0M |
| 14 Jul 2019 | Atlético | Barcelona | €120M | €130M |
| 28 Jul 2014 | Real Sociedad | Atlético | €54.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Real Sociedad Y | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Mâconnais Jgd. | Real Sociedad Y | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.