Kerem Demirbay

33 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Germany
Kasimpasa · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 183 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
61/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€246k – €972k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€478k – €1.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€367k – €836k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€494k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€246k – €972k
Model value (performance-implied)€478k – €1.6M
Projected value (24 months)€367k – €836k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kerem Demirbay's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2184 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 61

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage43.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €509k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-44% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €32.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2184 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
44 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1204
Opponent strength
1275
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€367k – €836k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 55 pts; changed club; team strength down (-353 Elo); role change CM -> DM; relative output up 137% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -55% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26EyüpsporSuper LigDM16141646%010.060.14127512040.40
2025/26KasimpasaSuper LigCM1176825%100.120.18126412030.40
2024/25GalatasaraySuper LigCM2053316%010.170.09124715570.39
2023/24GalatasaraySuper LigCM34222165%640.410.20129215970.45
2022/23Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCM25154751%430.410.27154816011.04
2021/22Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCM29205367%170.350.26152716391.05
2020/21Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCM29174357%430.360.23151315631.06
2019/20Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCM25157852%150.340.22151716541.06
2018/19TSG 1899 HoffenheimBundesligaCM26202166%490.580.31149415731.05
2017/18TSG 1899 HoffenheimBundesligaCM19121140%220.300.25150815791.04
2016/17TSG 1899 HoffenheimBundesligaCM28218171%6100.660.48154215921.06
2013/14Hamburger SVBundesligaCM3552%011.640.48169713731.03

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray9230021459
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingGalatasaray127001534
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray2159101503
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingGalatasaray2121001499
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray261001526
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5266001644
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5260101534
2022/23Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen14500—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5421001549
2021/22Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen211620—
2020/21Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen330004—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen3270101477
2019/20Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen642405—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5375001673
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen4351111646
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueTSG 1899 Hoffenheim5370021686
2018/19Dfb PokalTSG 1899 Hoffenheim19000—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueTSG 1899 Hoffenheim4317031455
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingTSG 1899 Hoffenheim2180001669
2017/18Dfb PokalTSG 1899 Hoffenheim214601—
2016/17Dfb PokalTSG 1899 Hoffenheim112000—
2015/16Dfb PokalFortuna Düsseldorf19010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Leroy Fer
Super Lig · 2023
33€400k€200kfell
Kirill Zaika
Premier Liga · 2024
32€600k€300kfell
Georgios Fotakis
Super League 1 · 2015
34€500k€300kfell
Johanna Omolo
Super Lig · 2021
32€500k€100kfell
Ali Karimi
Super Lig · 2024
30€800k€800kflat
Adnan Aganovic
Super League 1 · 2018
31€400k€200kfell
Fredrik Midtsjø
Super Lig · 2024
31€2.0M€900kfell
Roman Karasyuk
Premier Liga · 2022
31€400k€175kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
15 Jan 2026EyüpsporKasimpasaFree / loan€1.5M
2 Jul 2025GalatasarayEyüpsporFree / loan€2.3M
3 Aug 2023LeverkusenGalatasaray€3.7M€6.0M
1 Jul 2019HoffenheimLeverkusen€32.0M€32.0M
13 Jul 2016HamburgHoffenheim€4.7M€1.3M
30 Jun 2016F. DüsseldorfHamburgFree / loan€1.3M
25 Aug 2015HamburgF. DüsseldorfFree / loan€1.3M
30 Jun 20151.FC K'lauternHamburgFree / loan€1.0M
1 Sept 2014Hamburg1.FC K'lauternFree / loan€350k
1 Jul 2013B. Dortmund IIHamburgFree / loan€350k
1 Jul 2012B. Dortmund U19B. Dortmund IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Wattenschd. U19B. Dortmund U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Wattenschd. U17Wattenschd. U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Dortmund Yth.Wattenschd. U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Schalke 04 Yth.Dortmund Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.