Hakan Çalhanoğlu

32 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also AM, CM, LM, LW, SS) · Türkiye
Inter Milan · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
9/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€16.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€5.6M – €14.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€13.1M – €33.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.6M – €8.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.4M – €27.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.6M – €14.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€13.1M – €33.0M
Projected value (24 months)€3.6M – €8.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€16.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Hakan Çalhanoğlu's performance-implied value at EUR 13.1M-33.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-14.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-8.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.96x the positional average in the league (1651 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 9

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite98.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €7.4M vs market €16.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-68% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1651 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.71
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.37
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
98 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1722
Opponent strength
1527
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.6M – €8.1M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-96 Elo); relative output up 87% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -60% to -41%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1651 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Inter MilanSerie ADM22165148%940.710.37152717220.93
2024/25Inter MilanSerie ADM29196357%560.500.20151118190.99
2023/24Inter MilanSerie ADM32257675%1330.560.23148218020.98
2022/23Inter MilanSerie ACM33237469%360.340.19144617380.94
2021/22Inter MilanSerie ACM34250573%7130.720.29145517310.89
2020/21AC MilanSerie AAM33262877%4100.480.33145616390.90
2019/20AC MilanSerie ALW35271779%990.600.42142315900.82
2018/19AC MilanSerie ALW36289885%360.280.29145515380.78
2017/18AC MilanSerie ALW31217264%690.620.56148215550.86
2016/17Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaLM15121740%650.810.43153215471.06
2015/16Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaSS31226474%360.360.46151316381.02
2014/15Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaAM33251882%870.540.34153316601.03
2013/14Hamburger SVBundesligaLW32244380%1140.550.54156413731.03

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan6338121564
2025/26World CupTurkiye218000—
2025/26Italy CupInter Milan214821—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan12834421752
2024/25Italy CupInter Milan418120—
2024/25Supercoppa ItalianaInter Milan2103001731
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan6513101665
2023/24Supercoppa ItalianaInter Milan2171101619
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan12807121724
2022/23Italy CupInter Milan323700—
2022/23Supercoppa ItalianaInter Milan184001688
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan6419001771
2021/22Italy CupInter Milan531310—
2021/22Supercoppa ItalianaInter Milan1120001706
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAC Milan6355101599
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingAC Milan3293421390
2020/21Italy CupAC Milan17400—
2019/20Italy CupAC Milan321520—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueAC Milan5315141440
2018/19Italy CupAC Milan424401—
2018/19Supercoppa ItalianaAC Milan190001839
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueAC Milan8612241496
2017/18Italy CupAC Milan429000—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingAC Milan285011409
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen6357121601
2016/17Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen11600—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen6504251632
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen4360101647
2015/16Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen322810—
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingBayer 04 Leverkusen2163101587

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Lars Bender
Bundesliga · 2019
30€9.0M€5.5Mfell
Vicente Iborra
Laliga · 2017
29€9.0M€9.0Mflat
Alberto Aquilani
Serie A · 2013
29€10.0M€5.0Mfell
Mario Pašalić
Serie A · 2024
29€13.0M€6.0Mfell
Frank Lampard
Premier League · 2013
35€4.0M€1.0Mfell
Stéphane Mbia
Laliga · 2014
28€9.0M€5.2Mfell
Senad Lulic
Serie A · 2015
29€14.0M€7.0Mfell
William Carvalho
Laliga · 2022
30€16.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021AC MilanInterFree / loan€35.0M
3 Jul 2017LeverkusenAC Milan€23.3M€20.0M
4 Jul 2014HamburgLeverkusen€15.3M€7.0M
30 Jun 2013Karlsruher SCHamburgFree / loan€3.0M
15 Aug 2012HamburgKarlsruher SCFree / loan€1.0M
14 Aug 2012Karlsruher SCHamburg€2.5M€1.0M
1 Jan 2012Karlsruhe U19Karlsruher SCUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Karlsruhe U17Karlsruhe U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Mannheim Yth.Karlsruhe U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2001PSV Mannh. Yth.Mannheim Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.