Mario Pašalić

31 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM) · Croatia
Atalanta BC · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
12/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.6M – €5.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.8M – €27.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.7M – €3.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€72k – €25.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.6M – €5.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.8M – €27.5M
Projected value (24 months)€1.7M – €3.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mario Pašalić's performance-implied value at EUR 5.8M-27.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-3.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (1931 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 12

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite92.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €3.5M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-59% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €28.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1931 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.33
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
93 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1588
Opponent strength
1475
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.7M – €3.7M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-91 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -73% to -27%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Atalanta BCSerie ACM33193156%340.330.20147515880.93
2024/25Atalanta BCSerie ACM34197058%340.320.19148916790.99
2023/24Atalanta BCSerie ACM34204660%660.530.34149217090.98
2022/23Atalanta BCSerie AAM32178352%520.350.33148615560.94
2021/22Atalanta BCSerie AAM37200859%1370.900.49141715660.89
2020/21Atalanta BCSerie AAM25111333%620.650.34143516730.90
2019/20Atalanta BCSerie ACM35242471%950.520.28140816660.82
2018/19Atalanta BCSerie AAM33161647%530.450.35147015700.78
2017/18FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCM21103138%410.440.24137315510.75
2016/17AC MilanSerie ACM24176252%510.310.22146315190.88
2015/16AS MonacoLigue 1CM1699729%300.270.16142415220.78
2014/15Elche CFLaligaCM31222465%300.120.20156614801.18

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC9604321743
2025/26Italy CupAtalanta BC423641—
2025/26World CupCroatia310000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC10605311593
2024/25Italy CupAtalanta BC211101—
2024/25Uefa Super CupAtalanta BC190001881
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC11437101645
2023/24Italy CupAtalanta BC524611—
2022/23Italy CupAtalanta BC15400—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC5219111648
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC4210001581
2021/22Italy CupAtalanta BC29101—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC5280011734
2020/21Italy CupAtalanta BC34000—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC9693321698
2019/20Italy CupAtalanta BC19000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingAtalanta BC4222121418
2018/19Italy CupAtalanta BC519221—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueFK Spartak Moskva6353001569
2017/18Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva425110—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva174001582
2016/17Supercoppa ItalianaAC Milan147001818
2016/17Italy CupAC Milan23700—
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingAS Monaco4298201583
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueAS Monaco5292001525
2014/15Copa Del ReyElche CF425700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Vladimir Bystrov
Premier Liga · 2013
29€6.5M€2.5Mfell
Michel Bastos
Bundesliga · 2013
30€7.0M€4.0Mfell
Corentin Tolisso
Ligue 1 · 2024
30€5.0M€10.0Mrose
Daniele De Rossi
Serie A · 2016
33€5.0M€3.5Mfell
Flavien Tait
Ligue 1 · 2023
30€6.0M€450kfell
Juraj Kucka
Serie A · 2017
30€9.0M€5.0Mfell
Albert Riera
Super Lig · 2013
31€5.0M€500kfell
Jermaine Jones
Bundesliga · 2014
33€3.0M€2.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2020ChelseaAtalanta€14.5M€25.0M
31 Aug 2020AtalantaChelseaFree / loan€25.0M
25 Jul 2018ChelseaAtalantaFree / loan€8.0M
30 Jun 2018Spartak MoscowChelseaFree / loan€8.0M
2 Aug 2017ChelseaSpartak MoscowFree / loan€8.0M
30 Jun 2017AC MilanChelseaFree / loan€8.0M
27 Aug 2016ChelseaAC MilanFree / loan€4.5M
30 Jun 2016MonacoChelseaFree / loan€5.0M
3 Jul 2015ChelseaMonacoFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2015Elche CFChelseaFree / loan€3.0M
21 Jul 2014ChelseaElche CFFree / loan€3.0M
9 Jul 2014Hajduk SplitChelsea€2.5M€3.0M
12 Apr 2013Hajduk U19Hajduk SplitUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Hajduk U17Hajduk U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Hajduk Yth.Hajduk U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.