Lucas Digne
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Digne's performance-implied value at EUR 8.6M-12.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -68% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1852 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1583
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -74% (IQR -79% to -59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 31 | 1852 | 54% | 0 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 1583 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 32 | 2360 | 69% | 0 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1573 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 33 | 2413 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 1595 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 28 | 1500 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1605 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 16 | 1273 | 37% | 0 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1553 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2021/22 | Everton FC | Premier League | LB | 13 | 1170 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1562 | 1474 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Everton FC | Premier League | LB | 30 | 2682 | 78% | 0 | 7 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 1562 | 1561 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Everton FC | Premier League | LB | 35 | 3036 | 89% | 0 | 7 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 1579 | 1525 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Everton FC | Premier League | LB | 35 | 2966 | 87% | 4 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 1562 | 1594 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 12 | 702 | 21% | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 1479 | 1851 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 17 | 1175 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1493 | 1861 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LB | 33 | 2859 | 84% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1484 | 1665 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 15 | 1270 | 37% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1387 | 1690 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 15 | 1336 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1464 | 1720 | 0.79 |
| 2012/13 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 33 | 2804 | 82% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1450 | 1520 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 10 | 736 | 0 | 1 | 1538 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 9 | 747 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 4 | 238 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 3 | 1238 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 3 | 263 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 353 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2017/18 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1962 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 4 | 284 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 124 | 0 | 1 | 1635 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 8 | 720 | 0 | 2 | 1709 |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1360 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1668 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 5 | 368 | 0 | 1 | 1519 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | 1535 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacho Monreal Premier League · 2019 | 33 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Laurent Koscielny Premier League · 2019 | 34 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| César Azpilicueta Premier League · 2022 | 33 | €9.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Costa Laliga · 2014 | 33 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Craig Dawson Premier League · 2021 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Felipe Laliga · 2022 | 33 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ezequiel Garay Laliga · 2019 | 33 | €8.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kalidou Koulibaly Premier League · 2023 | 32 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2022 | Everton | Aston Villa | €30.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Barcelona | Everton | €20.2M | €15.0M |
| 13 Jul 2016 | PSG | Barcelona | €16.5M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Roma | PSG | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 26 Aug 2015 | PSG | Roma | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 17 Jul 2013 | Lille | PSG | €15.0M | €10.0M |
| 20 Jan 2012 | LOSC Lille B | Lille | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | LOSC Lille U19 | LOSC Lille B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | LOSC Lille Yth. | LOSC Lille U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Crepy en Valois | LOSC Lille Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.